Trader consensus prices a modest 13% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the market frontrunner—reflecting persistent adherence to the 1992 testing moratorium despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to resume explosive nuclear weapons testing. No concrete preparations or announcements have advanced since then, with the National Nuclear Security Administration prioritizing stockpile stewardship through advanced simulations rather than live detonations. Early March 2026 U.S. conventional strikes on Iranian nuclear sites heightened geopolitical tensions but did not signal testing escalation. Barriers include Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty pressures, congressional funding hurdles, and lengthy Nevada Test Site reactivation. Watch FY2027 DOE budget debates and CTBT ratification hearings for potential shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
$640,716 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de junio de 2026
1%
30 de septiembre de 2026
6%
31 de diciembre de 2026
13%
$640,716 Vol.
30 de junio de 2026
$23,901 Vol.
1%
30 de septiembre de 2026
$2,322 Vol.
6%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$4,274 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a modest 13% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the market frontrunner—reflecting persistent adherence to the 1992 testing moratorium despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to resume explosive nuclear weapons testing. No concrete preparations or announcements have advanced since then, with the National Nuclear Security Administration prioritizing stockpile stewardship through advanced simulations rather than live detonations. Early March 2026 U.S. conventional strikes on Iranian nuclear sites heightened geopolitical tensions but did not signal testing escalation. Barriers include Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty pressures, congressional funding hurdles, and lengthy Nevada Test Site reactivation. Watch FY2027 DOE budget debates and CTBT ratification hearings for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$640,716Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a modest 13% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the market frontrunner—reflecting persistent adherence to the 1992 testing moratorium despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to resume explosive nuclear weapons testing. No concrete preparations or announcements have advanced since then, with the National Nuclear Security Administration prioritizing stockpile stewardship through advanced simulations rather than live detonations. Early March 2026 U.S. conventional strikes on Iranian nuclear sites heightened geopolitical tensions but did not signal testing escalation. Barriers include Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty pressures, congressional funding hurdles, and lengthy Nevada Test Site reactivation. Watch FY2027 DOE budget debates and CTBT ratification hearings for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$640,716Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a modest 13% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the market frontrunner—reflecting persistent adherence to the 1992 testing moratorium despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to resume explosive nuclear weapons testing. No concrete preparations or announcements have advanced since then, with the National Nuclear Security Administration prioritizing stockpile stewardship through advanced simulations rather than live detonations. Early March 2026 U.S. conventional strikes on Iranian nuclear sites heightened geopolitical tensions but did not signal testing escalation. Barriers include Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty pressures, congressional funding hurdles, and lengthy Nevada Test Site reactivation. Watch FY2027 DOE budget debates and CTBT ratification hearings for potential shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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