The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying on stockpile stewardship, simulations, and subcritical experiments for warhead certification. Recent trader sentiment reflects low implied probabilities for resumption by June 30 (2%), September 30 (7%), or December 31, 2026 (14%), driven by a March 24 Senate hearing where arms control official Melissa DiNanno declined to rule out tests per a Trump directive, amid unverified claims of Chinese low-yield activities, and Sen. Jacky Rosen's April 13 site visit highlighting preparation debates. Experts estimate 24-36 months for readiness, with the ongoing NPT Review Conference (through May 22) and congressional opposition from Nevada posing barriers to near-term executive action.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
$645,673 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de junio de 2026
2%
30 de septiembre de 2026
6%
31 de diciembre de 2026
13%
$645,673 Vol.
30 de junio de 2026
$27,251 Vol.
2%
30 de septiembre de 2026
$2,570 Vol.
6%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$5,633 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying on stockpile stewardship, simulations, and subcritical experiments for warhead certification. Recent trader sentiment reflects low implied probabilities for resumption by June 30 (2%), September 30 (7%), or December 31, 2026 (14%), driven by a March 24 Senate hearing where arms control official Melissa DiNanno declined to rule out tests per a Trump directive, amid unverified claims of Chinese low-yield activities, and Sen. Jacky Rosen's April 13 site visit highlighting preparation debates. Experts estimate 24-36 months for readiness, with the ongoing NPT Review Conference (through May 22) and congressional opposition from Nevada posing barriers to near-term executive action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$645,673Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying on stockpile stewardship, simulations, and subcritical experiments for warhead certification. Recent trader sentiment reflects low implied probabilities for resumption by June 30 (2%), September 30 (7%), or December 31, 2026 (14%), driven by a March 24 Senate hearing where arms control official Melissa DiNanno declined to rule out tests per a Trump directive, amid unverified claims of Chinese low-yield activities, and Sen. Jacky Rosen's April 13 site visit highlighting preparation debates. Experts estimate 24-36 months for readiness, with the ongoing NPT Review Conference (through May 22) and congressional opposition from Nevada posing barriers to near-term executive action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$645,673Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying on stockpile stewardship, simulations, and subcritical experiments for warhead certification. Recent trader sentiment reflects low implied probabilities for resumption by June 30 (2%), September 30 (7%), or December 31, 2026 (14%), driven by a March 24 Senate hearing where arms control official Melissa DiNanno declined to rule out tests per a Trump directive, amid unverified claims of Chinese low-yield activities, and Sen. Jacky Rosen's April 13 site visit highlighting preparation debates. Experts estimate 24-36 months for readiness, with the ongoing NPT Review Conference (through May 22) and congressional opposition from Nevada posing barriers to near-term executive action.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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