President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, initially raised the prospect of ending the post-1992 moratorium. Subsequent statements from administration officials through March 2026 indicate ongoing internal assessments of options, including possible underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site, though no specific program has been authorized and no such test has occurred. The February 2026 expiration of New START, combined with stockpile stewardship programs and congressional resistance, continues to shape trader views on whether an explosive test will take place by the market's resolution date. Low implied probabilities reflect technical preparation timelines, domestic opposition, and the preference for non-explosive verification methods.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
$768,767 Vol.
30 sep 2026
30 de septiembre de 2026
1%
31 de diciembre de 2026
4%
$768,767 Vol.
30 de septiembre de 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$50,767 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, initially raised the prospect of ending the post-1992 moratorium. Subsequent statements from administration officials through March 2026 indicate ongoing internal assessments of options, including possible underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site, though no specific program has been authorized and no such test has occurred. The February 2026 expiration of New START, combined with stockpile stewardship programs and congressional resistance, continues to shape trader views on whether an explosive test will take place by the market's resolution date. Low implied probabilities reflect technical preparation timelines, domestic opposition, and the preference for non-explosive verification methods.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$768,767Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, initially raised the prospect of ending the post-1992 moratorium. Subsequent statements from administration officials through March 2026 indicate ongoing internal assessments of options, including possible underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site, though no specific program has been authorized and no such test has occurred. The February 2026 expiration of New START, combined with stockpile stewardship programs and congressional resistance, continues to shape trader views on whether an explosive test will take place by the market's resolution date. Low implied probabilities reflect technical preparation timelines, domestic opposition, and the preference for non-explosive verification methods.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$768,767Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, initially raised the prospect of ending the post-1992 moratorium. Subsequent statements from administration officials through March 2026 indicate ongoing internal assessments of options, including possible underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site, though no specific program has been authorized and no such test has occurred. The February 2026 expiration of New START, combined with stockpile stewardship programs and congressional resistance, continues to shape trader views on whether an explosive test will take place by the market's resolution date. Low implied probabilities reflect technical preparation timelines, domestic opposition, and the preference for non-explosive verification methods.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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