US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026, including the Midnight Hammer operation and February campaign, have degraded Tehran's program by up to two years according to Pentagon assessments, with IAEA reports in March and April confirming no radiation anomalies or diversion of nuclear material. Recent US intelligence from March 2026 states Iran has not resumed enrichment at destroyed sites like Natanz, while ongoing diplomatic talks—such as Iran's review of a US 14-point nuclear proposal—signal restraint amid sanctions and monitoring. Traders price "No" at 91% reflecting this skin-in-the-game consensus on significant barriers to a nuclear test before 2027, though reconstitution efforts at underground sites could pose future risks pending IAEA verification.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
$187,414 Vol.
$187,414 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$187,414 Vol.
$187,414 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026, including the Midnight Hammer operation and February campaign, have degraded Tehran's program by up to two years according to Pentagon assessments, with IAEA reports in March and April confirming no radiation anomalies or diversion of nuclear material. Recent US intelligence from March 2026 states Iran has not resumed enrichment at destroyed sites like Natanz, while ongoing diplomatic talks—such as Iran's review of a US 14-point nuclear proposal—signal restraint amid sanctions and monitoring. Traders price "No" at 91% reflecting this skin-in-the-game consensus on significant barriers to a nuclear test before 2027, though reconstitution efforts at underground sites could pose future risks pending IAEA verification.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$187,414Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026, including the Midnight Hammer operation and February campaign, have degraded Tehran's program by up to two years according to Pentagon assessments, with IAEA reports in March and April confirming no radiation anomalies or diversion of nuclear material. Recent US intelligence from March 2026 states Iran has not resumed enrichment at destroyed sites like Natanz, while ongoing diplomatic talks—such as Iran's review of a US 14-point nuclear proposal—signal restraint amid sanctions and monitoring. Traders price "No" at 91% reflecting this skin-in-the-game consensus on significant barriers to a nuclear test before 2027, though reconstitution efforts at underground sites could pose future risks pending IAEA verification.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$187,414Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026, including the Midnight Hammer operation and February campaign, have degraded Tehran's program by up to two years according to Pentagon assessments, with IAEA reports in March and April confirming no radiation anomalies or diversion of nuclear material. Recent US intelligence from March 2026 states Iran has not resumed enrichment at destroyed sites like Natanz, while ongoing diplomatic talks—such as Iran's review of a US 14-point nuclear proposal—signal restraint amid sanctions and monitoring. Traders price "No" at 91% reflecting this skin-in-the-game consensus on significant barriers to a nuclear test before 2027, though reconstitution efforts at underground sites could pose future risks pending IAEA verification.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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