Russia has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1990, despite suspending Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) ratification in 2023 and President Putin's November 2025 order for officials to prepare resumption proposals amid U.S.-Russia tensions following New START's February 2026 expiration. The Kremlin denied secret tests in February 2026, with no verified detonations reported since. Recent April exercises involving nuclear-capable Yars ICBMs in Siberia and Tu-22M3 bombers over the Baltic Sea signal strategic readiness at sites like Novaya Zemlya but confirm no explosive events via CTBTO seismic monitoring. Traders eye diplomatic escalations, U.S. policy signals, or official announcements that could prompt a test amid arms race fears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$1,344,983 Vol.
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$1,344,983 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1990, despite suspending Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) ratification in 2023 and President Putin's November 2025 order for officials to prepare resumption proposals amid U.S.-Russia tensions following New START's February 2026 expiration. The Kremlin denied secret tests in February 2026, with no verified detonations reported since. Recent April exercises involving nuclear-capable Yars ICBMs in Siberia and Tu-22M3 bombers over the Baltic Sea signal strategic readiness at sites like Novaya Zemlya but confirm no explosive events via CTBTO seismic monitoring. Traders eye diplomatic escalations, U.S. policy signals, or official announcements that could prompt a test amid arms race fears.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volumen
$1,344,983Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1990, despite suspending Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) ratification in 2023 and President Putin's November 2025 order for officials to prepare resumption proposals amid U.S.-Russia tensions following New START's February 2026 expiration. The Kremlin denied secret tests in February 2026, with no verified detonations reported since. Recent April exercises involving nuclear-capable Yars ICBMs in Siberia and Tu-22M3 bombers over the Baltic Sea signal strategic readiness at sites like Novaya Zemlya but confirm no explosive events via CTBTO seismic monitoring. Traders eye diplomatic escalations, U.S. policy signals, or official announcements that could prompt a test amid arms race fears.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,344,983Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1990, despite suspending Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) ratification in 2023 and President Putin's November 2025 order for officials to prepare resumption proposals amid U.S.-Russia tensions following New START's February 2026 expiration. The Kremlin denied secret tests in February 2026, with no verified detonations reported since. Recent April exercises involving nuclear-capable Yars ICBMs in Siberia and Tu-22M3 bombers over the Baltic Sea signal strategic readiness at sites like Novaya Zemlya but confirm no explosive events via CTBTO seismic monitoring. Traders eye diplomatic escalations, U.S. policy signals, or official announcements that could prompt a test amid arms race fears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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