**Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources position the lowest temperature in the Seoul/Incheon area on September 2, 2026, most likely between 22–24°C, directly supporting the market’s concentration on those outcomes (23°C at 50%, 24°C at 39%, 22°C at 12.5%).** Official and ensemble guidance shows overnight lows stabilizing in this narrow range due to persistent high humidity (80–95%), extensive cloud cover from preceding thunderstorms on September 1, and light northerly to northwesterly winds that limit radiative cooling. Incheon’s coastal location adds a moderating marine influence, while the urban heat island effect in the broader Seoul metro area tends to elevate minimum readings by 1–2°C relative to rural baselines. Historical early-September climatology for the region centers near 20–22°C, but current atmospheric conditions—elevated dew points near 21–23°C and residual moisture—support the upward shift implied by trader pricing. Model consensus (including recent runs) shows little spread in the overnight minimum, with only modest sensitivity to exact wind timing or any late-day clearing. Resolution will hinge on official Incheon station observations, where even small variations in cloud persistence or wind could tip the recorded low between the tightly clustered 22–24°C buckets. With the event less than 24 hours away, fresh forecast updates or real-time observations represent the primary near-term drivers of any probability shifts.