Trader consensus favors "No" at 87% implied probability for a megaquake—defined via USGS as magnitude 9.0 or higher—by June 30, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events, with only five recorded globally since 1900 on major subduction zones like Cascadia, Chile, and Japan. No M9+ quakes have occurred in 2026, per USGS data, with the largest being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4s near Indonesia (April 1) and Japan (April 20). The latter prompted Japan's Meteorological Agency to briefly elevate regional M8+ odds to 1% for the Nankai Trough, but that advisory expired without escalation, underscoring short-term unpredictability and lack of precursors. USGS real-time monitoring shows normal global seismicity, with baseline annual M9+ odds under 5%; key upcoming data includes weekly significant quake catalogs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Megaquake para el 30 de junio?
¿Megaquake para el 30 de junio?
Sí
$60,116 Vol.
$60,116 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$60,116 Vol.
$60,116 Vol.
30 jun 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors "No" at 87% implied probability for a megaquake—defined via USGS as magnitude 9.0 or higher—by June 30, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events, with only five recorded globally since 1900 on major subduction zones like Cascadia, Chile, and Japan. No M9+ quakes have occurred in 2026, per USGS data, with the largest being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4s near Indonesia (April 1) and Japan (April 20). The latter prompted Japan's Meteorological Agency to briefly elevate regional M8+ odds to 1% for the Nankai Trough, but that advisory expired without escalation, underscoring short-term unpredictability and lack of precursors. USGS real-time monitoring shows normal global seismicity, with baseline annual M9+ odds under 5%; key upcoming data includes weekly significant quake catalogs.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volumen
$60,116Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors "No" at 87% implied probability for a megaquake—defined via USGS as magnitude 9.0 or higher—by June 30, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events, with only five recorded globally since 1900 on major subduction zones like Cascadia, Chile, and Japan. No M9+ quakes have occurred in 2026, per USGS data, with the largest being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4s near Indonesia (April 1) and Japan (April 20). The latter prompted Japan's Meteorological Agency to briefly elevate regional M8+ odds to 1% for the Nankai Trough, but that advisory expired without escalation, underscoring short-term unpredictability and lack of precursors. USGS real-time monitoring shows normal global seismicity, with baseline annual M9+ odds under 5%; key upcoming data includes weekly significant quake catalogs.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$60,116Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 87% implied probability for a megaquake—defined via USGS as magnitude 9.0 or higher—by June 30, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events, with only five recorded globally since 1900 on major subduction zones like Cascadia, Chile, and Japan. No M9+ quakes have occurred in 2026, per USGS data, with the largest being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4s near Indonesia (April 1) and Japan (April 20). The latter prompted Japan's Meteorological Agency to briefly elevate regional M8+ odds to 1% for the Nankai Trough, but that advisory expired without escalation, underscoring short-term unpredictability and lack of precursors. USGS real-time monitoring shows normal global seismicity, with baseline annual M9+ odds under 5%; key upcoming data includes weekly significant quake catalogs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes