Tyler Kistner's announcement on April 15, 2026, dropping out of the MN-02 Republican primary due to Marine Reserves activation for Middle East deployment has shifted trader consensus, placing state Sen. Eric Pratt at 54% implied probability ahead of Kistner at 51.5% as markets price in the abrupt change four months before the August 11 primary. Previously, the contest remained tightly matched by Kistner's Marine veteran appeal, name recognition from narrow 2020 and 2022 general election losses to Angie Craig, and recent straw poll dominance like 66% at Scott County GOP convention, counterbalanced by Pratt's local legislative record and Prior Lake base in this open battleground district. Upcoming precinct caucuses and party endorsements could solidify Pratt's frontrunner status amid immigration concerns dominating district discourse.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
NUEVO
11 ago 2026
Eric Pratt
84%
Tyler Kistner
14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
11 ago 2026
Eric Pratt
$2,575 Vol.
84%
Tyler Kistner
$11,066 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Tyler Kistner's announcement on April 15, 2026, dropping out of the MN-02 Republican primary due to Marine Reserves activation for Middle East deployment has shifted trader consensus, placing state Sen. Eric Pratt at 54% implied probability ahead of Kistner at 51.5% as markets price in the abrupt change four months before the August 11 primary. Previously, the contest remained tightly matched by Kistner's Marine veteran appeal, name recognition from narrow 2020 and 2022 general election losses to Angie Craig, and recent straw poll dominance like 66% at Scott County GOP convention, counterbalanced by Pratt's local legislative record and Prior Lake base in this open battleground district. Upcoming precinct caucuses and party endorsements could solidify Pratt's frontrunner status amid immigration concerns dominating district discourse.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercado abierto: Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$5,886Fecha de finalización
11 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Tyler Kistner's announcement on April 15, 2026, dropping out of the MN-02 Republican primary due to Marine Reserves activation for Middle East deployment has shifted trader consensus, placing state Sen. Eric Pratt at 54% implied probability ahead of Kistner at 51.5% as markets price in the abrupt change four months before the August 11 primary. Previously, the contest remained tightly matched by Kistner's Marine veteran appeal, name recognition from narrow 2020 and 2022 general election losses to Angie Craig, and recent straw poll dominance like 66% at Scott County GOP convention, counterbalanced by Pratt's local legislative record and Prior Lake base in this open battleground district. Upcoming precinct caucuses and party endorsements could solidify Pratt's frontrunner status amid immigration concerns dominating district discourse.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$5,886Fecha de finalización
11 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tyler Kistner's announcement on April 15, 2026, dropping out of the MN-02 Republican primary due to Marine Reserves activation for Middle East deployment has shifted trader consensus, placing state Sen. Eric Pratt at 54% implied probability ahead of Kistner at 51.5% as markets price in the abrupt change four months before the August 11 primary. Previously, the contest remained tightly matched by Kistner's Marine veteran appeal, name recognition from narrow 2020 and 2022 general election losses to Angie Craig, and recent straw poll dominance like 66% at Scott County GOP convention, counterbalanced by Pratt's local legislative record and Prior Lake base in this open battleground district. Upcoming precinct caucuses and party endorsements could solidify Pratt's frontrunner status amid immigration concerns dominating district discourse.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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