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Política·Primarias

IN-04 Republican Primary Winner

icon for IN-04 Republican Primary Winner
Política·Primarias

IN-04 Republican Primary Winner

Jim Baird 100.0%

Craig Haggard <1%

John Piper <1%

Polymarket

$10,148 Vol.

Jim Baird 100.0%

Craig Haggard <1%

John Piper <1%

Polymarket

$10,148 Vol.

Jim Baird

$3,993 Vol.

Yes

Craig Haggard

$2,299 Vol.

No

John Piper

$3,856 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Baird commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.6% implied probability to win Indiana's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 5, driven by his established record since 2019 in this deep-red district rated Trump +29. Despite challenges from state Rep. Craig Haggard, who secured endorsements from figures like Attorney General Todd Rokita in late March and faced $200,000 in anti-Baird PAC spending in April, Baird benefits from incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and limited challenger visibility in a low-turnout primary. John Piper trails far behind at 0.7%. Upsets remain possible via late voter mobilization among conservative critics labeling Baird a RINO over immigration stances or unforeseen scandals, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$10,148
Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 2:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resultado propuesto: Yes

Sin disputa

Resultado final: Yes

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Baird commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.6% implied probability to win Indiana's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 5, driven by his established record since 2019 in this deep-red district rated Trump +29. Despite challenges from state Rep. Craig Haggard, who secured endorsements from figures like Attorney General Todd Rokita in late March and faced $200,000 in anti-Baird PAC spending in April, Baird benefits from incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and limited challenger visibility in a low-turnout primary. John Piper trails far behind at 0.7%. Upsets remain possible via late voter mobilization among conservative critics labeling Baird a RINO over immigration stances or unforeseen scandals, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$10,148
Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 2:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resultado propuesto: Yes

Sin disputa

Resultado final: Yes

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Jim Baird" con 100%, seguido de "Craig Haggard" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" ha generado $10.1K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 20, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" es "Jim Baird" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Craig Haggard" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.