Trader consensus assigns a 91% implied probability against any new COVID variant of concern before 2027, reflecting the absence of variants meeting WHO or ECDC criteria for elevated transmissibility, severity, or immune escape that would prompt official designation. Ongoing genomic surveillance shows only sublineages like BA.3.2 under monitoring, which have risen modestly in parts of Europe but co-circulate without rapid dominance or public health impact. Reduced viral fitness in key mutations has limited broader spread, while T-cell immunity continues to mitigate severe outcomes. Resolution would hinge on formal classification of a novel strain triggering major policy shifts before the end of 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$243,750 Vol.
$243,750 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$243,750 Vol.
$243,750 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Trader consensus assigns a 91% implied probability against any new COVID variant of concern before 2027, reflecting the absence of variants meeting WHO or ECDC criteria for elevated transmissibility, severity, or immune escape that would prompt official designation. Ongoing genomic surveillance shows only sublineages like BA.3.2 under monitoring, which have risen modestly in parts of Europe but co-circulate without rapid dominance or public health impact. Reduced viral fitness in key mutations has limited broader spread, while T-cell immunity continues to mitigate severe outcomes. Resolution would hinge on formal classification of a novel strain triggering major policy shifts before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
Mercado abierto: Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ET
Volumen
$243,750Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Trader consensus assigns a 91% implied probability against any new COVID variant of concern before 2027, reflecting the absence of variants meeting WHO or ECDC criteria for elevated transmissibility, severity, or immune escape that would prompt official designation. Ongoing genomic surveillance shows only sublineages like BA.3.2 under monitoring, which have risen modestly in parts of Europe but co-circulate without rapid dominance or public health impact. Reduced viral fitness in key mutations has limited broader spread, while T-cell immunity continues to mitigate severe outcomes. Resolution would hinge on formal classification of a novel strain triggering major policy shifts before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
Volumen
$243,750Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 91% implied probability against any new COVID variant of concern before 2027, reflecting the absence of variants meeting WHO or ECDC criteria for elevated transmissibility, severity, or immune escape that would prompt official designation. Ongoing genomic surveillance shows only sublineages like BA.3.2 under monitoring, which have risen modestly in parts of Europe but co-circulate without rapid dominance or public health impact. Reduced viral fitness in key mutations has limited broader spread, while T-cell immunity continues to mitigate severe outcomes. Resolution would hinge on formal classification of a novel strain triggering major policy shifts before the end of 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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