Skip to main content

Para operar en EE. UU., ve a polymarket.us

icon for ¿Siguiente Muse Spark Model (1.4+) lanzado el...?
Tech·IA

¿Siguiente Muse Spark Model (1.4+) lanzado el...?

icon for ¿Siguiente Muse Spark Model (1.4+) lanzado el...?
Tech·IA

¿Siguiente Muse Spark Model (1.4+) lanzado el...?

17 de octubre 26%

22 de octubre 26%

24 de octubre 26%

28 de octubre 25%

Polymarket
NUEVO

17 de octubre 26%

22 de octubre 26%

24 de octubre 26%

28 de octubre 25%

Polymarket
NUEVO

El 1 de octubre o antes

$0 Vol.

14%

2 de octubre

$0 Vol.

14%

3 de octubre

$0 Vol.

14%

4 de octubre

$0 Vol.

14%

5 de octubre

$0 Vol.

25%

6 de octubre

$0 Vol.

14%

7 de octubre

$0 Vol.

25%

8 de octubre

$0 Vol.

25%

9 de octubre

$0 Vol.

25%

10 de octubre

$0 Vol.

25%

11 de octubre

$0 Vol.

25%

12 de octubre

$0 Vol.

25%

13 de octubre

$0 Vol.

14%

14 de octubre

$0 Vol.

14%

15 de octubre

$0 Vol.

14%

16 de octubre

$0 Vol.

14%

17 de octubre

$0 Vol.

26%

18 de octubre

$0 Vol.

14%

19 de octubre

$0 Vol.

15%

20 de octubre

$0 Vol.

25%

21 de octubre

$0 Vol.

24%

22 de octubre

$0 Vol.

26%

23 de octubre

$0 Vol.

13%

24 de octubre

$0 Vol.

26%

25 de octubre

$0 Vol.

24%

26 de octubre

$0 Vol.

25%

27 de octubre

$0 Vol.

25%

28 de octubre

$0 Vol.

25%

29 de octubre

$0 Vol.

25%

30 de octubre

$0 Vol.

25%

31 de octubre

$0 Vol.

24%

Sin lanzamiento antes del 31 de octubre

$0 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s rapid iteration cycle on Muse Spark drives the even odds across early-to-mid October dates for version 1.4 or later. The 1.3 update arrived September 2–3 with notable gains in coding and agentic performance, following 1.2 by roughly four weeks, while CEO Mark Zuckerberg highlighted upcoming open-weight releases and teased the larger “Watermelon” model. Traders see these factors creating pressure for another incremental update before month-end, yet Meta’s flexible development timelines, focus on efficiency benchmarks, and competition with frontier systems from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google leave no single date dominant. The 13.5% chance of no release by October 31 reflects uncertainty around exact feature thresholds and internal priorities.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$0
Fecha de finalización
31 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s rapid iteration cycle on Muse Spark drives the even odds across early-to-mid October dates for version 1.4 or later. The 1.3 update arrived September 2–3 with notable gains in coding and agentic performance, following 1.2 by roughly four weeks, while CEO Mark Zuckerberg highlighted upcoming open-weight releases and teased the larger “Watermelon” model. Traders see these factors creating pressure for another incremental update before month-end, yet Meta’s flexible development timelines, focus on efficiency benchmarks, and competition with frontier systems from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google leave no single date dominant. The 13.5% chance of no release by October 31 reflects uncertainty around exact feature thresholds and internal priorities.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$0
Fecha de finalización
31 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Relacionado

icon for ¿Se lanzará el próximo Muse Spark (1.4+) antes del 31 de octubre de 2026?

¿Se lanzará el próximo Muse Spark (1.4+) antes del 31 de octubre de 2026?

73%
Sí
icon for ¿La próxima familia de modelos Muse se llamará Muse Fire?

¿La próxima familia de modelos Muse se llamará Muse Fire?

36%
Sí
icon for ¿Se lanzará Watermelon de Meta antes del 30 de noviembre de 2026?

¿Se lanzará Watermelon de Meta antes del 30 de noviembre de 2026?

89%
Sí

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Siguiente Muse Spark Model (1.4+) lanzado el...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 32 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "17 de octubre" con 26%, seguido de "22 de octubre" con 26%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 26¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 26% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Siguiente Muse Spark Model (1.4+) lanzado el...?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Sep 22, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Siguiente Muse Spark Model (1.4+) lanzado el...?", explora los 32 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Siguiente Muse Spark Model (1.4+) lanzado el...?" es "17 de octubre" con 26%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 26% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "22 de octubre" con 26%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Siguiente Muse Spark Model (1.4+) lanzado el...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.