Anthropic’s rapid September releases have shaped trader views on the September 28 AI model ranking. Claude Fable 5.1, launched September 1, continues to post leading scores on independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index through mid-September, supporting its 42.5% implied probability. The September 22 launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which Anthropic states matches Fable 5.1 capability on most agentic coding and knowledge-work tasks at roughly 40% lower cost, has introduced fresh competition and helped push “Other” to 55.5%. Traders appear to weigh the possibility that GPT-6 Astra variants, Gemini updates, or the new Opus 5.5 itself could top the specific resolution metric, while lower-probability Opus 5 variants reflect their narrower recent gains. The five-day window leaves limited time for additional model drops or benchmark updates to shift the close contest.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOtro 55%
claude-fable-5.1-max 43%
claude-opus-5-high 22.2%
claude-opus-5-max 4.3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
28 sep 2026
Otro
55%
claude-fable-5.1-max
43%
claude-opus-5-high
22%
claude-opus-5-max
4%
claude-opus-4-6-high
1%
Otro 55%
claude-fable-5.1-max 43%
claude-opus-5-high 22.2%
claude-opus-5-max 4.3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
28 sep 2026
Otro
$369 Vol.
55%
claude-fable-5.1-max
$201 Vol.
43%
claude-opus-5-high
$73 Vol.
22%
claude-opus-5-max
$73 Vol.
4%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$113 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s rapid September releases have shaped trader views on the September 28 AI model ranking. Claude Fable 5.1, launched September 1, continues to post leading scores on independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index through mid-September, supporting its 42.5% implied probability. The September 22 launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which Anthropic states matches Fable 5.1 capability on most agentic coding and knowledge-work tasks at roughly 40% lower cost, has introduced fresh competition and helped push “Other” to 55.5%. Traders appear to weigh the possibility that GPT-6 Astra variants, Gemini updates, or the new Opus 5.5 itself could top the specific resolution metric, while lower-probability Opus 5 variants reflect their narrower recent gains. The five-day window leaves limited time for additional model drops or benchmark updates to shift the close contest.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
Volumen
$829Fecha de finalización
28 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s rapid September releases have shaped trader views on the September 28 AI model ranking. Claude Fable 5.1, launched September 1, continues to post leading scores on independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index through mid-September, supporting its 42.5% implied probability. The September 22 launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which Anthropic states matches Fable 5.1 capability on most agentic coding and knowledge-work tasks at roughly 40% lower cost, has introduced fresh competition and helped push “Other” to 55.5%. Traders appear to weigh the possibility that GPT-6 Astra variants, Gemini updates, or the new Opus 5.5 itself could top the specific resolution metric, while lower-probability Opus 5 variants reflect their narrower recent gains. The five-day window leaves limited time for additional model drops or benchmark updates to shift the close contest.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$829Fecha de finalización
28 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s rapid September releases have shaped trader views on the September 28 AI model ranking. Claude Fable 5.1, launched September 1, continues to post leading scores on independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index through mid-September, supporting its 42.5% implied probability. The September 22 launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which Anthropic states matches Fable 5.1 capability on most agentic coding and knowledge-work tasks at roughly 40% lower cost, has introduced fresh competition and helped push “Other” to 55.5%. Traders appear to weigh the possibility that GPT-6 Astra variants, Gemini updates, or the new Opus 5.5 itself could top the specific resolution metric, while lower-probability Opus 5 variants reflect their narrower recent gains. The five-day window leaves limited time for additional model drops or benchmark updates to shift the close contest.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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