Trader consensus strongly backs under 3 million TSA-screened passengers on April 3 at 97.3% implied probability, reflecting late March throughput data consistently below this threshold—peaking at 2.87 million during spring break before stabilizing around 2.5 million weekdays, with March 30 at 2.53 million. Government shutdown staffing strains caused long lines but suppressed surges amid post-peak lull, aligning volumes with historical norms short of 3 million even on busy Thursdays. This skin-in-the-game positioning underscores steady business travel patterns. Realistic upsets could stem from pre-Easter weekend rush on April 3 (before Good Friday), weather recoveries, or unexpected events pushing into 3.0-3.2 million territory, though recent trends make this unlikely absent major catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoNumber of TSA Passengers April 3?
Number of TSA Passengers April 3?
<3.0M 97.6%
3.0M-3.2M 1.9%
3.4M-3.6M <1%
3.2M-3.4M <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 abr 2026
<3.0M
98%
3.0M-3.2M
2%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
3.4M-3.6M
<1%
3.6M-3.8M
<1%
>3.8M
<1%
<3.0M 97.6%
3.0M-3.2M 1.9%
3.4M-3.6M <1%
3.2M-3.4M <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 abr 2026
<3.0M
$131 Vol.
98%
3.0M-3.2M
$26 Vol.
2%
3.2M-3.4M
$424 Vol.
<1%
3.4M-3.6M
$344 Vol.
<1%
3.6M-3.8M
$373 Vol.
<1%
>3.8M
$567 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus strongly backs under 3 million TSA-screened passengers on April 3 at 97.3% implied probability, reflecting late March throughput data consistently below this threshold—peaking at 2.87 million during spring break before stabilizing around 2.5 million weekdays, with March 30 at 2.53 million. Government shutdown staffing strains caused long lines but suppressed surges amid post-peak lull, aligning volumes with historical norms short of 3 million even on busy Thursdays. This skin-in-the-game positioning underscores steady business travel patterns. Realistic upsets could stem from pre-Easter weekend rush on April 3 (before Good Friday), weather recoveries, or unexpected events pushing into 3.0-3.2 million territory, though recent trends make this unlikely absent major catalysts.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Volumen
$1,866Fecha de finalización
3 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus strongly backs under 3 million TSA-screened passengers on April 3 at 97.3% implied probability, reflecting late March throughput data consistently below this threshold—peaking at 2.87 million during spring break before stabilizing around 2.5 million weekdays, with March 30 at 2.53 million. Government shutdown staffing strains caused long lines but suppressed surges amid post-peak lull, aligning volumes with historical norms short of 3 million even on busy Thursdays. This skin-in-the-game positioning underscores steady business travel patterns. Realistic upsets could stem from pre-Easter weekend rush on April 3 (before Good Friday), weather recoveries, or unexpected events pushing into 3.0-3.2 million territory, though recent trends make this unlikely absent major catalysts.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Volumen
$1,866Fecha de finalización
3 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus strongly backs under 3 million TSA-screened passengers on April 3 at 97.3% implied probability, reflecting late March throughput data consistently below this threshold—peaking at 2.87 million during spring break before stabilizing around 2.5 million weekdays, with March 30 at 2.53 million. Government shutdown staffing strains caused long lines but suppressed surges amid post-peak lull, aligning volumes with historical norms short of 3 million even on busy Thursdays. This skin-in-the-game positioning underscores steady business travel patterns. Realistic upsets could stem from pre-Easter weekend rush on April 3 (before Good Friday), weather recoveries, or unexpected events pushing into 3.0-3.2 million territory, though recent trends make this unlikely absent major catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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