Traders assign Sam Altman negligible odds of incarceration by mid-2026 because no federal or state criminal charges or indictments target the OpenAI CEO. Ongoing civil matters, including his sister’s amended lawsuit alleging historical abuse and Elon Musk’s recently dismissed breach-of-trust claims over the company’s nonprofit origins, fall short of the evidentiary standards needed for felony convictions. A May 2026 federal jury verdict clearing Altman and OpenAI in the Musk litigation further reinforces this positioning, while the April attack on Altman’s home involved a separate suspect facing charges. Without active criminal proceedings or credible new allegations, market-implied odds reflect the high bar for imprisonment in the absence of indictments.