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icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?
Tech·Big Tech

Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?

icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?
Tech·Big Tech

Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?

ene 1, 2027

ene 1, 2027

$130,423 Vol.

31 dic 2026
Polymarket

$130,423 Vol.

Polymarket

1575

$46,985 Vol.

53%

1600

$14,832 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent frontier large language model releases have driven strong trader consensus on MathArena benchmarks, where models like OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently lead with expected performance scores in the low-to-mid 80s percent range across uncontaminated math competitions. Iterative reasoning advances, tool use, and scaling have pushed top systems past 95 percent on many AIME and USAMO problems, though harder research-level and proof-based tasks remain below 75 percent for most entries. With three months left in 2026, labs are expected to ship further updates or variants ahead of year-end deadlines, potentially lifting the leader above key resolution thresholds. Open-weight challengers from Moonshot and Alibaba trail but could narrow gaps if efficiency gains accelerate adoption. Market-implied odds reflect this rapid capability trajectory tempered by typical release slippage risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$130,423
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent frontier large language model releases have driven strong trader consensus on MathArena benchmarks, where models like OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently lead with expected performance scores in the low-to-mid 80s percent range across uncontaminated math competitions. Iterative reasoning advances, tool use, and scaling have pushed top systems past 95 percent on many AIME and USAMO problems, though harder research-level and proof-based tasks remain below 75 percent for most entries. With three months left in 2026, labs are expected to ship further updates or variants ahead of year-end deadlines, potentially lifting the leader above key resolution thresholds. Open-weight challengers from Moonshot and Alibaba trail but could narrow gaps if efficiency gains accelerate adoption. Market-implied odds reflect this rapid capability trajectory tempered by typical release slippage risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$130,423
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Preguntas frecuentes

"Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "1525" con 100%, seguido de "1550" con 100%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?" ha generado $130.4K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Apr 2, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?" es "1525" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "1550" con 100%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.