Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants currently lead multiple independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMSYS Arena text and coding boards, driven by their July releases and strong agentic performance. This has shaped trader views toward Anthropic holding an edge heading into year-end. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini 3.1/3.7 series remain close behind on reasoning and multimodal tasks, while xAI's Grok 4.6 refresh on August 12 boosted its position with improved agentic loops at lower cost. Upcoming frontier drops expected from OpenAI in September, xAI later this month, Google in mid-September, and Meta in November could shift relative rankings quickly on evolving benchmarks like Humanity's Last Exam or SWE-bench. Rapid iteration across labs keeps the #1 position fluid through December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$126,171 Vol.
31 dic 2026
OpenAI
34%
20%
Alibaba
13%
xAI
13%
Meta
12%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
Moonshot
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Baidu
7%
Microsoft
5%
Amazon
4%
Meituan
4%
Mistral
3%
$126,171 Vol.
OpenAI
$22,572 Vol.
34%
$17,193 Vol.
20%
Alibaba
$3,366 Vol.
13%
xAI
$8,877 Vol.
13%
Meta
$14,909 Vol.
12%
Z.ai
$2,568 Vol.
9%
ByteDance
$2,876 Vol.
8%
Moonshot
$7,563 Vol.
8%
DeepSeek
$20,634 Vol.
8%
Baidu
$1,958 Vol.
7%
Microsoft
$5,185 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$5,106 Vol.
4%
Meituan
$3,143 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$10,220 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants currently lead multiple independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMSYS Arena text and coding boards, driven by their July releases and strong agentic performance. This has shaped trader views toward Anthropic holding an edge heading into year-end. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini 3.1/3.7 series remain close behind on reasoning and multimodal tasks, while xAI's Grok 4.6 refresh on August 12 boosted its position with improved agentic loops at lower cost. Upcoming frontier drops expected from OpenAI in September, xAI later this month, Google in mid-September, and Meta in November could shift relative rankings quickly on evolving benchmarks like Humanity's Last Exam or SWE-bench. Rapid iteration across labs keeps the #1 position fluid through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Volumen
$126,171Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants currently lead multiple independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMSYS Arena text and coding boards, driven by their July releases and strong agentic performance. This has shaped trader views toward Anthropic holding an edge heading into year-end. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini 3.1/3.7 series remain close behind on reasoning and multimodal tasks, while xAI's Grok 4.6 refresh on August 12 boosted its position with improved agentic loops at lower cost. Upcoming frontier drops expected from OpenAI in September, xAI later this month, Google in mid-September, and Meta in November could shift relative rankings quickly on evolving benchmarks like Humanity's Last Exam or SWE-bench. Rapid iteration across labs keeps the #1 position fluid through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$126,171Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants currently lead multiple independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMSYS Arena text and coding boards, driven by their July releases and strong agentic performance. This has shaped trader views toward Anthropic holding an edge heading into year-end. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini 3.1/3.7 series remain close behind on reasoning and multimodal tasks, while xAI's Grok 4.6 refresh on August 12 boosted its position with improved agentic loops at lower cost. Upcoming frontier drops expected from OpenAI in September, xAI later this month, Google in mid-September, and Meta in November could shift relative rankings quickly on evolving benchmarks like Humanity's Last Exam or SWE-bench. Rapid iteration across labs keeps the #1 position fluid through December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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