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icon for Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar
Política·Brasil

Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar

icon for Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar
Política·Brasil

Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar

Simone Tebet 29%

Guilherme Derrite 24%

Marina Silva 17%

Salles 13%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Simone Tebet 29%

Guilherme Derrite 24%

Marina Silva 17%

Salles 13%

Polymarket
NUEVO
icon for Simone Tebet

Simone Tebet

$164 Vol.

29%

icon for Guilherme Derrite

Guilherme Derrite

$187 Vol.

24%

icon for Marina Silva

Marina Silva

$184 Vol.

27%

icon for Salles

Salles

$99 Vol.

16%

icon for Marcio Alves

Marcio Alves

$99 Vol.

11%

icon for André do Prado

André do Prado

$119 Vol.

8%

icon for Weller Gonçalves

Weller Gonçalves

$79 Vol.

8%

icon for Dra. Eliana Ferreira

Dra. Eliana Ferreira

$99 Vol.

8%

icon for Geraldo Rufino

Geraldo Rufino

$97 Vol.

7%

icon for Maíra de Souza

Maíra de Souza

$90 Vol.

7%

icon for William Teixeira

William Teixeira

$121 Vol.

6%

icon for Soninha Francine

Soninha Francine

$111 Vol.

17%

icon for Ednelson Cesaretti

Ednelson Cesaretti

$112 Vol.

1%

icon for Petter Maahs

Petter Maahs

$79 Vol.

15%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In São Paulo's October 2026 Senate race, where voters select the top two candidates for the state's two seats, recent polling from Quaest, Ideia, and Genial/Quaest shows Simone Tebet (PSB) and Marina Silva (Rede) holding narrow leads, closely followed by Guilherme Derrite (PP) and André do Prado (PL). This positioning keeps implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered around 20-30% among frontrunners, as the contest pits Lula-aligned centrists against right-leaning challengers backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas's network. Official campaigning began in mid-August, amplifying focus on turnout among urban and evangelical blocs, while early Lula endorsements have drawn legal scrutiny without shifting aggregates. The open field and dual-vote mechanics sustain volatility, with any surge in right-wing consolidation or left-leaning turnout mobilization able to reorder the second spot ahead of the single-round vote.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$1,639
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In São Paulo's October 2026 Senate race, where voters select the top two candidates for the state's two seats, recent polling from Quaest, Ideia, and Genial/Quaest shows Simone Tebet (PSB) and Marina Silva (Rede) holding narrow leads, closely followed by Guilherme Derrite (PP) and André do Prado (PL). This positioning keeps implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered around 20-30% among frontrunners, as the contest pits Lula-aligned centrists against right-leaning challengers backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas's network. Official campaigning began in mid-August, amplifying focus on turnout among urban and evangelical blocs, while early Lula endorsements have drawn legal scrutiny without shifting aggregates. The open field and dual-vote mechanics sustain volatility, with any surge in right-wing consolidation or left-leaning turnout mobilization able to reorder the second spot ahead of the single-round vote.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$1,639
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 14 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Simone Tebet" con 29%, seguido de "Marina Silva" con 27%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 29¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 29% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Aug 17, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar", explora los 14 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar" es "Simone Tebet" con 29%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 29% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Marina Silva" con 27%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.