A record-strength El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +3.0°C in mid-September 2026 and all models projecting further intensification through winter, is the dominant driver pushing market-implied odds toward the 1.35–1.44°C range for September global mean surface temperature above pre-industrial levels. This event, already surpassing prior peaks from 2015–16, adds substantial heat to ocean and atmospheric systems, building on 2026’s trajectory of record or near-record warmth—August alone reached 1.32°C above the 20th-century average per NOAA, with Copernicus data showing months exceeding 1.5°C. The typical several-month lag in El Niño’s global temperature influence tempers the immediate September boost relative to later peaks, while long-term anthropogenic warming sets the elevated baseline. Traders appear to weigh these factors against model spread and observational updates expected in early October.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSeptiembre 2026 Aumento de Temperatura (ºC)
Septiembre 2026 Aumento de Temperatura (ºC)
1,35–1,39ºC 52%
1,40–1,44ºC 38%
1,30–1,34°C 16%
<1,30ºC 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 oct 2026
<1,30ºC
7%
1,30–1,34°C
12%
1,35–1,39ºC
52%
1,40–1,44ºC
38%
1,45–1,49ºC
9%
>1,49ºC
6%
1,35–1,39ºC 52%
1,40–1,44ºC 38%
1,30–1,34°C 16%
<1,30ºC 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 oct 2026
<1,30ºC
$89 Vol.
7%
1,30–1,34°C
$1,363 Vol.
12%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Vol.
52%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Vol.
38%
1,45–1,49ºC
$124 Vol.
9%
>1,49ºC
$263 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A record-strength El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +3.0°C in mid-September 2026 and all models projecting further intensification through winter, is the dominant driver pushing market-implied odds toward the 1.35–1.44°C range for September global mean surface temperature above pre-industrial levels. This event, already surpassing prior peaks from 2015–16, adds substantial heat to ocean and atmospheric systems, building on 2026’s trajectory of record or near-record warmth—August alone reached 1.32°C above the 20th-century average per NOAA, with Copernicus data showing months exceeding 1.5°C. The typical several-month lag in El Niño’s global temperature influence tempers the immediate September boost relative to later peaks, while long-term anthropogenic warming sets the elevated baseline. Traders appear to weigh these factors against model spread and observational updates expected in early October.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volumen
$1,839Fecha de finalización
10 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A record-strength El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +3.0°C in mid-September 2026 and all models projecting further intensification through winter, is the dominant driver pushing market-implied odds toward the 1.35–1.44°C range for September global mean surface temperature above pre-industrial levels. This event, already surpassing prior peaks from 2015–16, adds substantial heat to ocean and atmospheric systems, building on 2026’s trajectory of record or near-record warmth—August alone reached 1.32°C above the 20th-century average per NOAA, with Copernicus data showing months exceeding 1.5°C. The typical several-month lag in El Niño’s global temperature influence tempers the immediate September boost relative to later peaks, while long-term anthropogenic warming sets the elevated baseline. Traders appear to weigh these factors against model spread and observational updates expected in early October.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$1,839Fecha de finalización
10 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...A record-strength El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +3.0°C in mid-September 2026 and all models projecting further intensification through winter, is the dominant driver pushing market-implied odds toward the 1.35–1.44°C range for September global mean surface temperature above pre-industrial levels. This event, already surpassing prior peaks from 2015–16, adds substantial heat to ocean and atmospheric systems, building on 2026’s trajectory of record or near-record warmth—August alone reached 1.32°C above the 20th-century average per NOAA, with Copernicus data showing months exceeding 1.5°C. The typical several-month lag in El Niño’s global temperature influence tempers the immediate September boost relative to later peaks, while long-term anthropogenic warming sets the elevated baseline. Traders appear to weigh these factors against model spread and observational updates expected in early October.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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