Tropical Storm Norbert, currently at 50 knots with a central pressure of 999 mb near 17.1N 127.4W, sits just below the 64-knot hurricane threshold amid favorable environmental conditions that include warm sea-surface temperatures and supportive upper-level dynamics. National Hurricane Center guidance projects gradual intensification over the next 24–36 hours, with peak winds approaching or reaching 60 knots before mid-level dry air entrainment and reduced divergence induce weakening. Model consensus, including recent runs from GFS and ECMWF, aligns with this near-term strengthening window, supporting the 80.5% market-implied probability for Norbert attaining hurricane status. Traders are weighting the high likelihood of crossing the threshold during the favorable period before environmental degradation sets in later in the forecast. Updated NHC intensity guidance and satellite trends over the weekend will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La tormenta tropical Norbert se convertirá en un huracán?
¿La tormenta tropical Norbert se convertirá en un huracán?
Sí
79% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 sep 2026
Sí
79% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Tropical Storm Norbert, currently at 50 knots with a central pressure of 999 mb near 17.1N 127.4W, sits just below the 64-knot hurricane threshold amid favorable environmental conditions that include warm sea-surface temperatures and supportive upper-level dynamics. National Hurricane Center guidance projects gradual intensification over the next 24–36 hours, with peak winds approaching or reaching 60 knots before mid-level dry air entrainment and reduced divergence induce weakening. Model consensus, including recent runs from GFS and ECMWF, aligns with this near-term strengthening window, supporting the 80.5% market-implied probability for Norbert attaining hurricane status. Traders are weighting the high likelihood of crossing the threshold during the favorable period before environmental degradation sets in later in the forecast. Updated NHC intensity guidance and satellite trends over the weekend will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Mercado abierto: Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$115Fecha de finalización
22 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Tropical Storm Norbert, currently at 50 knots with a central pressure of 999 mb near 17.1N 127.4W, sits just below the 64-knot hurricane threshold amid favorable environmental conditions that include warm sea-surface temperatures and supportive upper-level dynamics. National Hurricane Center guidance projects gradual intensification over the next 24–36 hours, with peak winds approaching or reaching 60 knots before mid-level dry air entrainment and reduced divergence induce weakening. Model consensus, including recent runs from GFS and ECMWF, aligns with this near-term strengthening window, supporting the 80.5% market-implied probability for Norbert attaining hurricane status. Traders are weighting the high likelihood of crossing the threshold during the favorable period before environmental degradation sets in later in the forecast. Updated NHC intensity guidance and satellite trends over the weekend will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Volumen
$115Fecha de finalización
22 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Norbert, currently at 50 knots with a central pressure of 999 mb near 17.1N 127.4W, sits just below the 64-knot hurricane threshold amid favorable environmental conditions that include warm sea-surface temperatures and supportive upper-level dynamics. National Hurricane Center guidance projects gradual intensification over the next 24–36 hours, with peak winds approaching or reaching 60 knots before mid-level dry air entrainment and reduced divergence induce weakening. Model consensus, including recent runs from GFS and ECMWF, aligns with this near-term strengthening window, supporting the 80.5% market-implied probability for Norbert attaining hurricane status. Traders are weighting the high likelihood of crossing the threshold during the favorable period before environmental degradation sets in later in the forecast. Updated NHC intensity guidance and satellite trends over the weekend will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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