Recent observations place September 2026 on track for a global mean temperature anomaly of roughly +0.81 °C relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, consistent with a pre-industrial anomaly near the market’s leading 1.35–1.39 °C bin. A strong El Niño event peaking in the equatorial Pacific has sustained elevated sea-surface temperatures, particularly outside the polar regions, contributing to the joint-hottest August on record at 1.65 °C above 1850–1900 levels and keeping the trailing 12-month average near 1.48 °C. Seasonal cooling from boreal summer peak and model consensus projecting modest further decline through month-end narrow the distribution toward the central bins while leaving room for minor upward or downward revision once final ERA5 and other agency data are complete. Trader positioning reflects this balance between the ongoing oceanic heat release and the typical September trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSeptiembre 2026 Aumento de Temperatura (ºC)
Septiembre 2026 Aumento de Temperatura (ºC)
1,35–1,39ºC 52%
1,40–1,44ºC 38%
1,30–1,34°C 16%
<1,30ºC 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 nov 2026
<1,30ºC
7%
1,30–1,34°C
12%
1,35–1,39ºC
52%
1,40–1,44ºC
38%
1,45–1,49ºC
9%
>1,49ºC
6%
1,35–1,39ºC 52%
1,40–1,44ºC 38%
1,30–1,34°C 16%
<1,30ºC 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 nov 2026
<1,30ºC
$89 Vol.
7%
1,30–1,34°C
$1,363 Vol.
12%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Vol.
52%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Vol.
38%
1,45–1,49ºC
$124 Vol.
9%
>1,49ºC
$263 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observations place September 2026 on track for a global mean temperature anomaly of roughly +0.81 °C relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, consistent with a pre-industrial anomaly near the market’s leading 1.35–1.39 °C bin. A strong El Niño event peaking in the equatorial Pacific has sustained elevated sea-surface temperatures, particularly outside the polar regions, contributing to the joint-hottest August on record at 1.65 °C above 1850–1900 levels and keeping the trailing 12-month average near 1.48 °C. Seasonal cooling from boreal summer peak and model consensus projecting modest further decline through month-end narrow the distribution toward the central bins while leaving room for minor upward or downward revision once final ERA5 and other agency data are complete. Trader positioning reflects this balance between the ongoing oceanic heat release and the typical September trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volumen
$1,839Fecha de finalización
2 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observations place September 2026 on track for a global mean temperature anomaly of roughly +0.81 °C relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, consistent with a pre-industrial anomaly near the market’s leading 1.35–1.39 °C bin. A strong El Niño event peaking in the equatorial Pacific has sustained elevated sea-surface temperatures, particularly outside the polar regions, contributing to the joint-hottest August on record at 1.65 °C above 1850–1900 levels and keeping the trailing 12-month average near 1.48 °C. Seasonal cooling from boreal summer peak and model consensus projecting modest further decline through month-end narrow the distribution toward the central bins while leaving room for minor upward or downward revision once final ERA5 and other agency data are complete. Trader positioning reflects this balance between the ongoing oceanic heat release and the typical September trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$1,839Fecha de finalización
2 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observations place September 2026 on track for a global mean temperature anomaly of roughly +0.81 °C relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, consistent with a pre-industrial anomaly near the market’s leading 1.35–1.39 °C bin. A strong El Niño event peaking in the equatorial Pacific has sustained elevated sea-surface temperatures, particularly outside the polar regions, contributing to the joint-hottest August on record at 1.65 °C above 1850–1900 levels and keeping the trailing 12-month average near 1.48 °C. Seasonal cooling from boreal summer peak and model consensus projecting modest further decline through month-end narrow the distribution toward the central bins while leaving room for minor upward or downward revision once final ERA5 and other agency data are complete. Trader positioning reflects this balance between the ongoing oceanic heat release and the typical September trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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