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Geopolítica·Israel X Irán

¿Qué países llevarán a cabo una acción militar contra Irán antes del 30 de abril?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Israel X Irán

¿Qué países llevarán a cabo una acción militar contra Irán antes del 30 de abril?

abr 30

abr 30

$2,739,019 Vol.

30 abr 2026
Polymarket

$2,739,019 Vol.

Polymarket

EAU

$1,326,961 Vol.

8%

Arabia Saudita

$508,949 Vol.

6%

Kuwait

$115,149 Vol.

3%

Qatar

$27,577 Vol.

2%

Turquía

$68,982 Vol.

2%

Bahréin

$45,071 Vol.

2%

Reino Unido

$217,279 Vol.

2%

Jordania

$19,673 Vol.

1%

Cualquier país de la U.E.

$44,720 Vol.

1%

Omán

$30,114 Vol.

1%

Alemania

$120,101 Vol.

1%

Canadá

$39,475 Vol.

<1%

Francia

$174,968 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, ongoing since February 28, continue to target military sites, missile production, and infrastructure, with recent US naval blockades of Iranian ports announced on April 13 amid stalled ceasefire talks. Pakistani mediators arrived in Tehran on April 15 to revive negotiations, as President Trump threatens escalated strikes on energy assets if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain have shifted toward supporting or potentially joining operations following Iranian retaliatory attacks on regional energy facilities, while UK leaders discuss a broader coalition. Traders weigh fragile diplomacy against escalation risks through April 30 resolution, with no confirmed new actors beyond the US-Israel axis.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,739,019
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, ongoing since February 28, continue to target military sites, missile production, and infrastructure, with recent US naval blockades of Iranian ports announced on April 13 amid stalled ceasefire talks. Pakistani mediators arrived in Tehran on April 15 to revive negotiations, as President Trump threatens escalated strikes on energy assets if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain have shifted toward supporting or potentially joining operations following Iranian retaliatory attacks on regional energy facilities, while UK leaders discuss a broader coalition. Traders weigh fragile diplomacy against escalation risks through April 30 resolution, with no confirmed new actors beyond the US-Israel axis.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,739,019
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Qué países llevarán a cabo una acción militar contra Irán antes del 30 de abril?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 13 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "EAU" con 8%, seguido de "Arabia Saudita" con 6%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 8¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 8% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Qué países llevarán a cabo una acción militar contra Irán antes del 30 de abril?" ha generado $2.7 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 23, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Qué países llevarán a cabo una acción militar contra Irán antes del 30 de abril?", explora los 13 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Qué países llevarán a cabo una acción militar contra Irán antes del 30 de abril?" es "EAU" con solo 8%, con "Arabia Saudita" muy cerca con 6%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Qué países llevarán a cabo una acción militar contra Irán antes del 30 de abril?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.