A fragile two-week US-Israel ceasefire suspending strikes on Iran, announced by the White House on April 8, has tempered direct military action after six weeks of intense exchanges that began February 28 with nearly 900 joint attacks on Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and nuclear facilities. Iran retaliated with ballistic missile barrages on Israel, including recent hits causing civilian casualties, while Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran's South Pars gas field and oil hubs like Kharg Island. Israel continues operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, explicitly excluded from the truce, as President Trump issues deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid threats of energy infrastructure assaults. Traders assess escalation risks from Iranian proxy responses and diplomatic breakdowns ahead of the truce's expiration.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoIsrael military action against Iran by...?
Israel military action against Iran by...?
NUEVO
$10,615 Vol.
21 abr 2026
April 14
53%
April 21
66%
$10,615 Vol.
April 14
$3,379 Vol.
53%
April 21
$7,236 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week US-Israel ceasefire suspending strikes on Iran, announced by the White House on April 8, has tempered direct military action after six weeks of intense exchanges that began February 28 with nearly 900 joint attacks on Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and nuclear facilities. Iran retaliated with ballistic missile barrages on Israel, including recent hits causing civilian casualties, while Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran's South Pars gas field and oil hubs like Kharg Island. Israel continues operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, explicitly excluded from the truce, as President Trump issues deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid threats of energy infrastructure assaults. Traders assess escalation risks from Iranian proxy responses and diplomatic breakdowns ahead of the truce's expiration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volumen
$10,615Fecha de finalización
21 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week US-Israel ceasefire suspending strikes on Iran, announced by the White House on April 8, has tempered direct military action after six weeks of intense exchanges that began February 28 with nearly 900 joint attacks on Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and nuclear facilities. Iran retaliated with ballistic missile barrages on Israel, including recent hits causing civilian casualties, while Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran's South Pars gas field and oil hubs like Kharg Island. Israel continues operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, explicitly excluded from the truce, as President Trump issues deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid threats of energy infrastructure assaults. Traders assess escalation risks from Iranian proxy responses and diplomatic breakdowns ahead of the truce's expiration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$10,615Fecha de finalización
21 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week US-Israel ceasefire suspending strikes on Iran, announced by the White House on April 8, has tempered direct military action after six weeks of intense exchanges that began February 28 with nearly 900 joint attacks on Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and nuclear facilities. Iran retaliated with ballistic missile barrages on Israel, including recent hits causing civilian casualties, while Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran's South Pars gas field and oil hubs like Kharg Island. Israel continues operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, explicitly excluded from the truce, as President Trump issues deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid threats of energy infrastructure assaults. Traders assess escalation risks from Iranian proxy responses and diplomatic breakdowns ahead of the truce's expiration.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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