Amid escalating US-Israel military actions against Iran since February 28, including waves of airstrikes on Tehran and Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, traders price a tight race between 2, 3, or ≥4 countries struck by Israel in April, reflecting consensus on continued multi-front operations but uncertainty over expansion. Recent vows by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on March 27 to "intensify and expand" strikes amid Iranian missile retaliation sustain expectations of hits on core adversaries Iran and Lebanon, with debate centering on routine Syrian targets or escalation to Yemen's Houthis or Iraq proxies tipping toward 3 or more. De-escalation via diplomacy or ceasefire could favor ≤1 at lower odds, while fresh Iranian attacks or US-backed broadening might separate ≥4 higher; no major diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged in the past week.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHow many different countries will Israel strike in April?
How many different countries will Israel strike in April?
3 43%
≥4 41%
≤1 8%
2 0
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
8%
2
43%
3
43%
≥4
41%
3 43%
≥4 41%
≤1 8%
2 0
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$0 Vol.
8%
2
$1 Vol.
43%
3
$0 Vol.
43%
≥4
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Israel military actions against Iran since February 28, including waves of airstrikes on Tehran and Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, traders price a tight race between 2, 3, or ≥4 countries struck by Israel in April, reflecting consensus on continued multi-front operations but uncertainty over expansion. Recent vows by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on March 27 to "intensify and expand" strikes amid Iranian missile retaliation sustain expectations of hits on core adversaries Iran and Lebanon, with debate centering on routine Syrian targets or escalation to Yemen's Houthis or Iraq proxies tipping toward 3 or more. De-escalation via diplomacy or ceasefire could favor ≤1 at lower odds, while fresh Iranian attacks or US-backed broadening might separate ≥4 higher; no major diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged in the past week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volumen
$1Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Israel military actions against Iran since February 28, including waves of airstrikes on Tehran and Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, traders price a tight race between 2, 3, or ≥4 countries struck by Israel in April, reflecting consensus on continued multi-front operations but uncertainty over expansion. Recent vows by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on March 27 to "intensify and expand" strikes amid Iranian missile retaliation sustain expectations of hits on core adversaries Iran and Lebanon, with debate centering on routine Syrian targets or escalation to Yemen's Houthis or Iraq proxies tipping toward 3 or more. De-escalation via diplomacy or ceasefire could favor ≤1 at lower odds, while fresh Iranian attacks or US-backed broadening might separate ≥4 higher; no major diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged in the past week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid escalating US-Israel military actions against Iran since February 28, including waves of airstrikes on Tehran and Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, traders price a tight race between 2, 3, or ≥4 countries struck by Israel in April, reflecting consensus on continued multi-front operations but uncertainty over expansion. Recent vows by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on March 27 to "intensify and expand" strikes amid Iranian missile retaliation sustain expectations of hits on core adversaries Iran and Lebanon, with debate centering on routine Syrian targets or escalation to Yemen's Houthis or Iraq proxies tipping toward 3 or more. De-escalation via diplomacy or ceasefire could favor ≤1 at lower odds, while fresh Iranian attacks or US-backed broadening might separate ≥4 higher; no major diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged in the past week.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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