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Geopolítica·Israel

Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Israel

Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

44% chance
Polymarket
NEW
44% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Israel's limited airstrike on an Iranian air defense facility near Isfahan on April 19—retaliation for Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage—both sides have pursued de-escalation amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and mutual signals of restraint from Prime Minister Netanyahu and Iranian officials. No verified reports of strikes on Iranian power plants have emerged since, with trader consensus reflecting the absence of new provocations, intelligence leaks, or escalation triggers specific to energy infrastructure like Bushehr. Ongoing Gaza operations and nuclear talks divert focus, lowering implied odds of action by April 30, though sudden retaliatory rhetoric or covert operations could shift sentiment.

Following Israel's limited airstrike on an Iranian air defense facility near Isfahan on April 19—retaliation for Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage—both sides have pursued de-escalation amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and mutual signals of restraint from Prime Minister Netanyahu and Iranian officials. No verified reports of strikes on Iranian power plants have emerged since, with trader consensus reflecting the absence of new provocations, intelligence leaks, or escalation triggers specific to energy infrastructure like Bushehr. Ongoing Gaza operations and nuclear talks divert focus, lowering implied odds of action by April 30, though sudden retaliatory rhetoric or covert operations could shift sentiment.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Israel's limited airstrike on an Iranian air defense facility near Isfahan on April 19—retaliation for Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage—both sides have pursued de-escalation amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and mutual signals of restraint from Prime Minister Netanyahu and Iranian officials. No verified reports of strikes on Iranian power plants have emerged since, with trader consensus reflecting the absence of new provocations, intelligence leaks, or escalation triggers specific to energy infrastructure like Bushehr. Ongoing Gaza operations and nuclear talks divert focus, lowering implied odds of action by April 30, though sudden retaliatory rhetoric or covert operations could shift sentiment.

Following Israel's limited airstrike on an Iranian air defense facility near Isfahan on April 19—retaliation for Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage—both sides have pursued de-escalation amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and mutual signals of restraint from Prime Minister Netanyahu and Iranian officials. No verified reports of strikes on Iranian power plants have emerged since, with trader consensus reflecting the absence of new provocations, intelligence leaks, or escalation triggers specific to energy infrastructure like Bushehr. Ongoing Gaza operations and nuclear talks divert focus, lowering implied odds of action by April 30, though sudden retaliatory rhetoric or covert operations could shift sentiment.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

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Preguntas frecuentes

"Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones de "Sí" o "No" según si creen que este evento ocurrirá. La probabilidad actual según la comunidad es 44% para "Yes". Por ejemplo, si "Sí" se cotiza a 44¢, el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 44% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos e información. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 27, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?", simplemente elige si crees que la respuesta es "Sí" o "No". Cada lado tiene un precio actual que refleja la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si compras acciones de "Sí" y el resultado se resuelve como "Sí", cada acción paga $1. Si se resuelve como "No", tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución para asegurar ganancias o limitar pérdidas.

La probabilidad actual para "Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?" es 44% para "Yes". Esto significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente cree que hay una probabilidad de 44% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real basándose en operaciones reales, proporcionando una señal continuamente actualizada de lo que el mercado espera.

Las reglas de resolución para "Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.