Republican control of the Senate, with a 53-47 majority, underpins trader consensus favoring Pete Hegseth remaining Secretary of Defense through June 30, as reflected in the 74.5% implied probability on "No." Recent Senate Armed Services Committee hearings highlighted personal conduct allegations, including past drinking claims and a settled sexual misconduct accusation, but Hegseth denied wrongdoing, and no disqualifying evidence surfaced. Key Republicans, including Chair Roger Wicker, indicated a viable confirmation path after private briefings, while initial skeptics like Sens. Collins and Tillis softened opposition. Trump's firm backing and lack of withdrawal signals bolster stability expectations, with a committee vote anticipated soon amid minimal new catalysts for removal.