President Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, 2026, halting US airstrikes ahead of an 8 p.m. deadline in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and talks scheduled in Islamabad starting Friday. This de-escalation follows 40 days of conflict, with the Pentagon claiming Iran's defense-industrial base destroyed while Iran insists on no capitulation, paving way for negotiations on a 10-point plan. Fragility persists amid reports of possible mines in the Strait, Israeli strikes on Lebanon, and US forces ready to resume combat if violated, influencing trader assessments of early termination risks before the April 21 expiration. Oil prices have slumped on the truce, but escalation signals could shift dynamics rapidly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Trump anuncia el fin del alto el fuego entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el...?
¿Trump anuncia el fin del alto el fuego entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el...?
NUEVO
$188,576 Vol.
10 abr 2026
10 de abril
6%
12 de abril
9%
15 de abril
13%
18 de abril
22%
21 de abril
30%
$188,576 Vol.
10 de abril
$56,114 Vol.
6%
12 de abril
$42,396 Vol.
9%
15 de abril
$17,740 Vol.
13%
18 de abril
$14,403 Vol.
22%
21 de abril
$26,203 Vol.
30%
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, 2026, halting US airstrikes ahead of an 8 p.m. deadline in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and talks scheduled in Islamabad starting Friday. This de-escalation follows 40 days of conflict, with the Pentagon claiming Iran's defense-industrial base destroyed while Iran insists on no capitulation, paving way for negotiations on a 10-point plan. Fragility persists amid reports of possible mines in the Strait, Israeli strikes on Lebanon, and US forces ready to resume combat if violated, influencing trader assessments of early termination risks before the April 21 expiration. Oil prices have slumped on the truce, but escalation signals could shift dynamics rapidly.
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Apr 8, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Volumen
$188,576Fecha de finalización
21 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, 2026, halting US airstrikes ahead of an 8 p.m. deadline in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and talks scheduled in Islamabad starting Friday. This de-escalation follows 40 days of conflict, with the Pentagon claiming Iran's defense-industrial base destroyed while Iran insists on no capitulation, paving way for negotiations on a 10-point plan. Fragility persists amid reports of possible mines in the Strait, Israeli strikes on Lebanon, and US forces ready to resume combat if violated, influencing trader assessments of early termination risks before the April 21 expiration. Oil prices have slumped on the truce, but escalation signals could shift dynamics rapidly.
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volumen
$188,576Fecha de finalización
21 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, 2026, halting US airstrikes ahead of an 8 p.m. deadline in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and talks scheduled in Islamabad starting Friday. This de-escalation follows 40 days of conflict, with the Pentagon claiming Iran's defense-industrial base destroyed while Iran insists on no capitulation, paving way for negotiations on a 10-point plan. Fragility persists amid reports of possible mines in the Strait, Israeli strikes on Lebanon, and US forces ready to resume combat if violated, influencing trader assessments of early termination risks before the April 21 expiration. Oil prices have slumped on the truce, but escalation signals could shift dynamics rapidly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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