Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting stalled nuclear diplomacy after February 2026 indirect talks in Vienna ended without agreement. US demands for zero uranium enrichment and potential facility destruction clashed with Iran's rejection, as Supreme Leader Khamenei vowed continued enrichment. IAEA's late February report highlighted Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—stored underground at Isfahan with restricted access, underscoring verification challenges. March analyses cited US negotiator unpreparedness and mutual distrust, with no resumed talks or transfer signals amid post-deadline tensions from 2025 Israeli-US strikes, making a pre-May 31 handover improbable absent major breakthroughs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting stalled nuclear diplomacy after February 2026 indirect talks in Vienna ended without agreement. US demands for zero uranium enrichment and potential facility destruction clashed with Iran's rejection, as Supreme Leader Khamenei vowed continued enrichment. IAEA's late February report highlighted Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—stored underground at Isfahan with restricted access, underscoring verification challenges. March analyses cited US negotiator unpreparedness and mutual distrust, with no resumed talks or transfer signals amid post-deadline tensions from 2025 Israeli-US strikes, making a pre-May 31 handover improbable absent major breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$7,044Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting stalled nuclear diplomacy after February 2026 indirect talks in Vienna ended without agreement. US demands for zero uranium enrichment and potential facility destruction clashed with Iran's rejection, as Supreme Leader Khamenei vowed continued enrichment. IAEA's late February report highlighted Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—stored underground at Isfahan with restricted access, underscoring verification challenges. March analyses cited US negotiator unpreparedness and mutual distrust, with no resumed talks or transfer signals amid post-deadline tensions from 2025 Israeli-US strikes, making a pre-May 31 handover improbable absent major breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,044Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting stalled nuclear diplomacy after February 2026 indirect talks in Vienna ended without agreement. US demands for zero uranium enrichment and potential facility destruction clashed with Iran's rejection, as Supreme Leader Khamenei vowed continued enrichment. IAEA's late February report highlighted Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—stored underground at Isfahan with restricted access, underscoring verification challenges. March analyses cited US negotiator unpreparedness and mutual distrust, with no resumed talks or transfer signals amid post-deadline tensions from 2025 Israeli-US strikes, making a pre-May 31 handover improbable absent major breakthroughs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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