Market icon
Geopolítica·Recompensas 50, 4.5, 20

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)

Market icon
Geopolítica·Recompensas 50, 4.5, 20

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)

abr 5

abr 5

35-39 30%

25-29 20%

30-34 19%

20-24 17%

Polymarket
NUEVO

$19,525 Vol.

35-39 30%

25-29 20%

30-34 19%

20-24 17%

Polymarket
NUEVO

$19,525 Vol.

<10

$2,168 Vol.

1%

10-14

$1,798 Vol.

3%

15-19

$2,110 Vol.

11%

20-24

$2,250 Vol.

17%

25-29

$1,981 Vol.

20%

30-34

$1,923 Vol.

19%

35-39

$2,938 Vol.

30%

40-44

$1,381 Vol.

6%

45+

$3,058 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis sparked by US-Israel strikes on Iran in late February, trader consensus clusters around 25-39 ships for Mar 30-Apr 5, reflecting a collapse from pre-war daily averages of 100+ vessels to 3-7 recently, driven by IRGC checkpoints at Larak Island enforcing selective passages mostly for Iranian or allied ships like recent Chinese container vessels on Mar 30. Partial week data shows low single-digit daily transits, with 97% Iran-linked last week per Lloyd's List Intelligence. Leading 35-39 edges out via expectations of steady 5/day under toll-like deals (e.g., Pakistan's 2/day quota), while 25-29 gains if stalled US-Iran talks via Pakistan—amid Trump's Apr 6 deadline extension—prompt fewer clearances or minor attacks, keeping higher bins like 45+ marginal absent de-escalation.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$19,525
Fecha de finalización
5 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis sparked by US-Israel strikes on Iran in late February, trader consensus clusters around 25-39 ships for Mar 30-Apr 5, reflecting a collapse from pre-war daily averages of 100+ vessels to 3-7 recently, driven by IRGC checkpoints at Larak Island enforcing selective passages mostly for Iranian or allied ships like recent Chinese container vessels on Mar 30. Partial week data shows low single-digit daily transits, with 97% Iran-linked last week per Lloyd's List Intelligence. Leading 35-39 edges out via expectations of steady 5/day under toll-like deals (e.g., Pakistan's 2/day quota), while 25-29 gains if stalled US-Iran talks via Pakistan—amid Trump's Apr 6 deadline extension—prompt fewer clearances or minor attacks, keeping higher bins like 45+ marginal absent de-escalation.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$19,525
Fecha de finalización
5 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 9 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "35-39" con 30%, seguido de "25-29" con 20%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 30¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 30% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)" ha generado $19.5K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 30, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)", explora los 9 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)" es "35-39" con 30%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 30% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "25-29" con 20%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.