The US and Iran agreed to a fragile two-week ceasefire on April 7-8, 2026, halting airstrikes and missile exchanges after five weeks of escalating conflict involving Strait of Hormuz closure and Israeli involvement, brokered by Pakistan just before President Trump's deadline for intensified strikes. This de-escalation sets the stage for substantive peace talks in Islamabad starting Friday, where the US seeks curbs on Iran's nuclear enrichment, missile program freeze, and proxy funding limits, while Tehran demands full sanctions relief and security guarantees. Divergent agendas and reports of ceasefire strains, including Israeli-Lebanon clashes, underscore barriers to a permanent peace deal, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over bridging these gaps amid ongoing diplomatic posturing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Acuerdo de paz permanente entre Estados Unidos e Irán por...?
¿Acuerdo de paz permanente entre Estados Unidos e Irán por...?
NUEVO
$193,882 Vol.
22 abr 2026
22 de abril
12%
30 de abril
16%
31 de mayo
29%
$193,882 Vol.
22 de abril
$151,775 Vol.
12%
30 de abril
$27,302 Vol.
16%
31 de mayo
$14,816 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US and Iran agreed to a fragile two-week ceasefire on April 7-8, 2026, halting airstrikes and missile exchanges after five weeks of escalating conflict involving Strait of Hormuz closure and Israeli involvement, brokered by Pakistan just before President Trump's deadline for intensified strikes. This de-escalation sets the stage for substantive peace talks in Islamabad starting Friday, where the US seeks curbs on Iran's nuclear enrichment, missile program freeze, and proxy funding limits, while Tehran demands full sanctions relief and security guarantees. Divergent agendas and reports of ceasefire strains, including Israeli-Lebanon clashes, underscore barriers to a permanent peace deal, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over bridging these gaps amid ongoing diplomatic posturing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
Volumen
$193,882Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US and Iran agreed to a fragile two-week ceasefire on April 7-8, 2026, halting airstrikes and missile exchanges after five weeks of escalating conflict involving Strait of Hormuz closure and Israeli involvement, brokered by Pakistan just before President Trump's deadline for intensified strikes. This de-escalation sets the stage for substantive peace talks in Islamabad starting Friday, where the US seeks curbs on Iran's nuclear enrichment, missile program freeze, and proxy funding limits, while Tehran demands full sanctions relief and security guarantees. Divergent agendas and reports of ceasefire strains, including Israeli-Lebanon clashes, underscore barriers to a permanent peace deal, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over bridging these gaps amid ongoing diplomatic posturing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$193,882Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US and Iran agreed to a fragile two-week ceasefire on April 7-8, 2026, halting airstrikes and missile exchanges after five weeks of escalating conflict involving Strait of Hormuz closure and Israeli involvement, brokered by Pakistan just before President Trump's deadline for intensified strikes. This de-escalation sets the stage for substantive peace talks in Islamabad starting Friday, where the US seeks curbs on Iran's nuclear enrichment, missile program freeze, and proxy funding limits, while Tehran demands full sanctions relief and security guarantees. Divergent agendas and reports of ceasefire strains, including Israeli-Lebanon clashes, underscore barriers to a permanent peace deal, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over bridging these gaps amid ongoing diplomatic posturing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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