A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, involving Iran-backed Hezbollah, took effect on April 17 amid U.S.-Iran negotiations, with President Trump signaling a potential deal resumption this weekend as Tehran studies peace proposals including nuclear moratoriums and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This follows Israeli airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure, including nuclear sites and petrochemical facilities, earlier in April, escalating a conflict ignited by failed diplomacy. Absent direct bilateral talks, trader sentiment reflects entrenched barriers like Iran's ballistic missile program, proxy networks, and mutual distrust, with upcoming U.S.-mediated sessions and ceasefire extensions as key catalysts that could signal de-escalation or renewed escalation. Permanent peace remains distant without verified concessions on core security demands.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
NUEVO
$13,832 Vol.
31 may 2026
April 22
8%
April 30
12%
30 de junio
31%
$13,832 Vol.
April 22
$10,970 Vol.
8%
April 30
$1,750 Vol.
12%
30 de junio
$1,112 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, involving Iran-backed Hezbollah, took effect on April 17 amid U.S.-Iran negotiations, with President Trump signaling a potential deal resumption this weekend as Tehran studies peace proposals including nuclear moratoriums and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This follows Israeli airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure, including nuclear sites and petrochemical facilities, earlier in April, escalating a conflict ignited by failed diplomacy. Absent direct bilateral talks, trader sentiment reflects entrenched barriers like Iran's ballistic missile program, proxy networks, and mutual distrust, with upcoming U.S.-mediated sessions and ceasefire extensions as key catalysts that could signal de-escalation or renewed escalation. Permanent peace remains distant without verified concessions on core security demands.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volumen
$13,832Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, involving Iran-backed Hezbollah, took effect on April 17 amid U.S.-Iran negotiations, with President Trump signaling a potential deal resumption this weekend as Tehran studies peace proposals including nuclear moratoriums and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This follows Israeli airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure, including nuclear sites and petrochemical facilities, earlier in April, escalating a conflict ignited by failed diplomacy. Absent direct bilateral talks, trader sentiment reflects entrenched barriers like Iran's ballistic missile program, proxy networks, and mutual distrust, with upcoming U.S.-mediated sessions and ceasefire extensions as key catalysts that could signal de-escalation or renewed escalation. Permanent peace remains distant without verified concessions on core security demands.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$13,832Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, involving Iran-backed Hezbollah, took effect on April 17 amid U.S.-Iran negotiations, with President Trump signaling a potential deal resumption this weekend as Tehran studies peace proposals including nuclear moratoriums and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This follows Israeli airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure, including nuclear sites and petrochemical facilities, earlier in April, escalating a conflict ignited by failed diplomacy. Absent direct bilateral talks, trader sentiment reflects entrenched barriers like Iran's ballistic missile program, proxy networks, and mutual distrust, with upcoming U.S.-mediated sessions and ceasefire extensions as key catalysts that could signal de-escalation or renewed escalation. Permanent peace remains distant without verified concessions on core security demands.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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