**Regulatory and geopolitical barriers amid US-China tensions remain the dominant factor behind the 77% market-implied probability against Apple purchasing CXMT DRAM chips in 2026.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration since at least June 2026 for assurances that CXMT, China’s leading DRAM maker on the Pentagon’s 1260H list, will avoid Commerce Department Entity List placement, while testing chips for potential use in China-market devices. An AI-driven memory shortage has pushed conventional DRAM prices sharply higher, prompting Apple to explore additional suppliers beyond Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. However, CXMT’s fabs are reportedly operating near 95% utilization with output largely booked through 2027, limiting near-term availability, and bipartisan opposition in Washington plus reputational risks continue to weigh on any deal. No finalized supply agreement has been confirmed as of mid-September 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
23% probabilidad
$21,728 Vol.
$21,728 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
23% probabilidad
$21,728 Vol.
$21,728 Vol.
31 dic 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Regulatory and geopolitical barriers amid US-China tensions remain the dominant factor behind the 77% market-implied probability against Apple purchasing CXMT DRAM chips in 2026.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration since at least June 2026 for assurances that CXMT, China’s leading DRAM maker on the Pentagon’s 1260H list, will avoid Commerce Department Entity List placement, while testing chips for potential use in China-market devices. An AI-driven memory shortage has pushed conventional DRAM prices sharply higher, prompting Apple to explore additional suppliers beyond Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. However, CXMT’s fabs are reportedly operating near 95% utilization with output largely booked through 2027, limiting near-term availability, and bipartisan opposition in Washington plus reputational risks continue to weigh on any deal. No finalized supply agreement has been confirmed as of mid-September 2026.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volumen
$21,728Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Regulatory and geopolitical barriers amid US-China tensions remain the dominant factor behind the 77% market-implied probability against Apple purchasing CXMT DRAM chips in 2026.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration since at least June 2026 for assurances that CXMT, China’s leading DRAM maker on the Pentagon’s 1260H list, will avoid Commerce Department Entity List placement, while testing chips for potential use in China-market devices. An AI-driven memory shortage has pushed conventional DRAM prices sharply higher, prompting Apple to explore additional suppliers beyond Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. However, CXMT’s fabs are reportedly operating near 95% utilization with output largely booked through 2027, limiting near-term availability, and bipartisan opposition in Washington plus reputational risks continue to weigh on any deal. No finalized supply agreement has been confirmed as of mid-September 2026.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$21,728Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Regulatory and geopolitical barriers amid US-China tensions remain the dominant factor behind the 77% market-implied probability against Apple purchasing CXMT DRAM chips in 2026.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration since at least June 2026 for assurances that CXMT, China’s leading DRAM maker on the Pentagon’s 1260H list, will avoid Commerce Department Entity List placement, while testing chips for potential use in China-market devices. An AI-driven memory shortage has pushed conventional DRAM prices sharply higher, prompting Apple to explore additional suppliers beyond Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. However, CXMT’s fabs are reportedly operating near 95% utilization with output largely booked through 2027, limiting near-term availability, and bipartisan opposition in Washington plus reputational risks continue to weigh on any deal. No finalized supply agreement has been confirmed as of mid-September 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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