Iranian lawmakers introduced legislation in March 2026 to exit the NPT following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, yet the bill remains stalled amid disrupted parliamentary sessions and lacks formal passage. Officials have continued submitting NPT review reports and reaffirmed commitments to non-nuclear-weapons obligations under existing treaties. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum included IAEA-supervised stockpile measures aligned with NPT terms, though it expired without extension by mid-August. These factors, alongside the significant diplomatic isolation and verification costs associated with formal withdrawal under Article X, underpin trader consensus favoring no exit before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Irán se retirará del TNP antes de 2027?
¿Irán se retirará del TNP antes de 2027?
Sí
14% probabilidad
$369,525 Vol.
$369,525 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
14% probabilidad
$369,525 Vol.
$369,525 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian lawmakers introduced legislation in March 2026 to exit the NPT following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, yet the bill remains stalled amid disrupted parliamentary sessions and lacks formal passage. Officials have continued submitting NPT review reports and reaffirmed commitments to non-nuclear-weapons obligations under existing treaties. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum included IAEA-supervised stockpile measures aligned with NPT terms, though it expired without extension by mid-August. These factors, alongside the significant diplomatic isolation and verification costs associated with formal withdrawal under Article X, underpin trader consensus favoring no exit before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volumen
$369,525Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian lawmakers introduced legislation in March 2026 to exit the NPT following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, yet the bill remains stalled amid disrupted parliamentary sessions and lacks formal passage. Officials have continued submitting NPT review reports and reaffirmed commitments to non-nuclear-weapons obligations under existing treaties. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum included IAEA-supervised stockpile measures aligned with NPT terms, though it expired without extension by mid-August. These factors, alongside the significant diplomatic isolation and verification costs associated with formal withdrawal under Article X, underpin trader consensus favoring no exit before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$369,525Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian lawmakers introduced legislation in March 2026 to exit the NPT following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, yet the bill remains stalled amid disrupted parliamentary sessions and lacks formal passage. Officials have continued submitting NPT review reports and reaffirmed commitments to non-nuclear-weapons obligations under existing treaties. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum included IAEA-supervised stockpile measures aligned with NPT terms, though it expired without extension by mid-August. These factors, alongside the significant diplomatic isolation and verification costs associated with formal withdrawal under Article X, underpin trader consensus favoring no exit before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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