Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have degraded key enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing back assessed timelines for weapons-grade uranium production. U.S. intelligence evaluations as of May 2026 indicate Iran would require nine to twelve months or longer to produce a nuclear device if it pursued that path, with no confirmed resumption of enrichment and inspectors withdrawn from affected locations. Ongoing diplomatic proposals address the highly enriched uranium stockpile and enrichment limits but have not yielded agreements, while military pressure continues. These factors underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 90.9% probability assigned to no nuclear weapon acquisition before 2027, though rapid reconstitution of capabilities or shifts in Iranian leadership decisions remain potential variables within the resolution window.