US intelligence assessments and IAEA reports confirm Iran maintains no active nuclear weaponization program, with Supreme Leader Khamenei upholding his 2003 suspension despite 60% enriched uranium stocks sufficient for potential bombs if further processed. Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in February 2026 degraded key enrichment and research facilities, including underground sites near Tehran, extending breakout timelines to 1-3 months for fissile material alone—far short of a testable device before 2027. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi noted surviving elements but urged inspections amid fragile ceasefire and US-Iran talks proposing curbs like stockpile exports. Trader consensus at 90.5% "No" reflects these setbacks, though rapid reconstitution or diplomatic collapse could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$563,149 Vol.
$563,149 Vol.
Sí
$563,149 Vol.
$563,149 Vol.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments and IAEA reports confirm Iran maintains no active nuclear weaponization program, with Supreme Leader Khamenei upholding his 2003 suspension despite 60% enriched uranium stocks sufficient for potential bombs if further processed. Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in February 2026 degraded key enrichment and research facilities, including underground sites near Tehran, extending breakout timelines to 1-3 months for fissile material alone—far short of a testable device before 2027. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi noted surviving elements but urged inspections amid fragile ceasefire and US-Iran talks proposing curbs like stockpile exports. Trader consensus at 90.5% "No" reflects these setbacks, though rapid reconstitution or diplomatic collapse could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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