Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have substantially damaged enrichment sites and related infrastructure, while IAEA inspectors have lacked access to verify stocks of up to 60 percent enriched uranium for over a year. U.S. intelligence assessments continue to indicate no active weaponization program or decision by Tehran to pursue a bomb, consistent with the 2003 suspension of such efforts. Ongoing diplomatic contacts, including preliminary U.S.-Iran understandings on downblending material and renewed safeguards, further reduce the near-term breakout risk within the remaining months before 2027. Trader consensus at 95 percent on no nuclear device reflects these verified setbacks and the absence of detectable sprint activities, though rapid reconstitution of hidden material or a policy shift could still alter the timeline.