Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with U.S. intelligence assessments through March 2026 confirming that enrichment has not resumed and the program remains disrupted. Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent persists but lies buried under rubble at attacked facilities, and Tehran has stated it has no plans to recover the material. Ongoing diplomatic exchanges in April and May 2026 have featured Iranian proposals for multi-year pauses on enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, though talks have stalled without binding commitments. These verified setbacks and stalled nuclear diplomacy underpin trader consensus that Iran will not acquire a nuclear weapon before 2027, though recovery of the stockpile or a shift in enrichment policy could still alter the trajectory.