**The 75.7% market-implied probability that Paramount Skydance will not close its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery by December 31, 2026, reflects the binding impact of ongoing state-level antitrust litigation and an explicit timeline extension.** The companies reached a definitive $110–111 billion agreement in late February 2026, secured U.S. Department of Justice clearance in June, and obtained approvals from the UK CMA and dozens of other jurisdictions by August. However, in July a coalition of 12 states led by California sued to block the deal on antitrust grounds, prompting a federal court pause. The parties then voluntarily agreed to freeze closing until June 2027 (or an earlier court ruling), with the antitrust trial now scheduled for March 2027. This structure, combined with the ticking fee that begins accruing after December 31, 2026, makes a 2026 close effectively impossible absent a rapid, unexpected settlement or reversal—scenarios traders view as low-probability given the litigation timeline and judicial calendar.