Scottie Scheffler enters as the clear leader in implied probability for a Top 10 finish at the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, driven by his No. 1 world ranking, elite ball-striking consistency, and pursuit of the career Grand Slam on a course that rewards precision off the tee and approach play. Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm follow closely, benefiting from extensive major championship experience and strong recent form, while Matt Fitzpatrick stands out due to his 2022 U.S. Open win, current hot streak with multiple victories, and superior short-game metrics suited to firm, windy conditions. Other notable contenders include Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, and J.J. Spaun, whose profiles align with historical Shinnecock performers emphasizing accuracy over raw distance. The 156-player field features limited late changes, with the setup expected to produce low scoring averages only for those managing the rough and greens effectively over four rounds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedScottie Scheffler
48%
Rory McIlroy
34%
Xander Schauffele
30%
Jon Rahm
30%
Matt Fitzpatrick
28%
Tommy Fleetwood
28%
Ryo Hisatsune
27%
Max Greyserman
27%
Andrew Novak
26%
Michael Kim
25%
Cole Hammer
24%
Cameron Young
24%
Nick Hardy
23%
Si Woo Kim
19%
Russell Henley
19%
Sam Burns
18%
Bryson DeChambeau
18%
Collin Morikawa
17%
Patrick Cantlay
15%
Chris Gotterup
15%
Tyrrell Hatton
15%
Viktor Hovland
15%
J.J. Spaun
15%
Justin Thomas
14%
Tom Kim
14%
Brooks Koepka
14%
Patrick Reed
14%
Min Woo Lee
14%
Robert MacIntyre
13%
Kurt Kitayama
13%
Matt McCarty
13%
Wyndham Clark
13%
Maverick McNealy
13%
Justin Rose
12%
Jordan Spieth
12%
Ben Griffin
12%
Adam Scott
12%
Bud Cauley
12%
Hideki Matsuyama
11%
Kristoffer Reitan
11%
Shane Lowry
11%
Harris English
11%
Joaquin Niemann
11%
Alex Fitzpatrick
11%
Aaron Rai
10%
Alexander Noren
10%
Ryan Gerard
10%
David Puig
10%
Alex Smalley
9%
Jacob Bridgeman
9%
Jake Knapp
9%
Jackson Koivun
9%
Gary Woodland
8%
Akshay Bhatia
8%
Keegan Bradley
8%
Sepp Straka
8%
Rickie Fowler
8%
Sahith Theegala
7%
JT Poston
7%
Keith Mitchell
7%
Brian Harman
7%
Ryan Fox
6%
Harry Hall
6%
Dustin Johnson
6%
Corey Conners
6%
Nick Taylor
6%
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
6%
Sam Stevens
6%
Jason Day
6%
Andrew Putnam
6%
Daniel Berger
6%
Davis Thompson
6%
Michael Brennan
5%
Cameron Smith
5%
Sung-Jae Im
5%
Lucas Herbert
5%
Pierceson Coody
5%
Jayden Schaper
5%
Max McGreevy
4%
William Mouw
4%
Jackson Suber
4%
Benjamin James
4%
Johnny Keefer
3%
Ben Kohles
3%
Chris Kirk
3%
Emiliano Grillo
3%
Carlos Ortiz
3%
Patrick Rodgers
3%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
3%
Nicolas Echavarria
2%
Nathan Kimsey
2%
John Parry
2%
Billy Horschel
2%
Zac Blair
2%
Kevin Roy
2%
Laurie Canter
2%
Jimmy Stanger
2%
Matthew Jordan
2%
Caleb Surratt
2%
Graeme McDowell
1%
$0.00 Vol.
Scottie Scheffler
48%
Rory McIlroy
34%
Xander Schauffele
30%
Jon Rahm
30%
Matt Fitzpatrick
28%
Tommy Fleetwood
28%
Ryo Hisatsune
27%
Max Greyserman
27%
Andrew Novak
26%
Michael Kim
25%
Cole Hammer
24%
Cameron Young
24%
Nick Hardy
23%
Si Woo Kim
19%
Russell Henley
19%
Sam Burns
18%
Bryson DeChambeau
18%
Collin Morikawa
17%
Patrick Cantlay
15%
Chris Gotterup
15%
Tyrrell Hatton
15%
Viktor Hovland
15%
J.J. Spaun
15%
Justin Thomas
14%
Tom Kim
14%
Brooks Koepka
14%
Patrick Reed
14%
Min Woo Lee
14%
Robert MacIntyre
13%
Kurt Kitayama
13%
Matt McCarty
13%
Wyndham Clark
13%
Maverick McNealy
13%
Justin Rose
12%
Jordan Spieth
12%
Ben Griffin
12%
Adam Scott
12%
Bud Cauley
12%
Hideki Matsuyama
11%
Kristoffer Reitan
11%
Shane Lowry
11%
Harris English
11%
Joaquin Niemann
11%
Alex Fitzpatrick
11%
Aaron Rai
10%
Alexander Noren
10%
Ryan Gerard
10%
David Puig
10%
Alex Smalley
9%
Jacob Bridgeman
9%
Jake Knapp
9%
Jackson Koivun
9%
Gary Woodland
8%
Akshay Bhatia
8%
Keegan Bradley
8%
Sepp Straka
8%
Rickie Fowler
8%
Sahith Theegala
7%
JT Poston
7%
Keith Mitchell
7%
Brian Harman
7%
Ryan Fox
6%
Harry Hall
6%
Dustin Johnson
6%
Corey Conners
6%
Nick Taylor
6%
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
6%
Sam Stevens
6%
Jason Day
6%
Andrew Putnam
6%
Daniel Berger
6%
Davis Thompson
6%
Michael Brennan
5%
Cameron Smith
5%
Sung-Jae Im
5%
Lucas Herbert
5%
Pierceson Coody
5%
Jayden Schaper
5%
Max McGreevy
4%
William Mouw
4%
Jackson Suber
4%
Benjamin James
4%
Johnny Keefer
3%
Ben Kohles
3%
Chris Kirk
3%
Emiliano Grillo
3%
Carlos Ortiz
3%
Patrick Rodgers
3%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
3%
Nicolas Echavarria
2%
Nathan Kimsey
2%
John Parry
2%
Billy Horschel
2%
Zac Blair
2%
Kevin Roy
2%
Laurie Canter
2%
Jimmy Stanger
2%
Matthew Jordan
2%
Caleb Surratt
2%
Graeme McDowell
1%
Market Opened: Jun 15, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Scottie Scheffler enters as the clear leader in implied probability for a Top 10 finish at the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, driven by his No. 1 world ranking, elite ball-striking consistency, and pursuit of the career Grand Slam on a course that rewards precision off the tee and approach play. Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm follow closely, benefiting from extensive major championship experience and strong recent form, while Matt Fitzpatrick stands out due to his 2022 U.S. Open win, current hot streak with multiple victories, and superior short-game metrics suited to firm, windy conditions. Other notable contenders include Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, and J.J. Spaun, whose profiles align with historical Shinnecock performers emphasizing accuracy over raw distance. The 156-player field features limited late changes, with the setup expected to produce low scoring averages only for those managing the rough and greens effectively over four rounds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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