Scottie Scheffler holds the highest implied probability at 13.5% as the world number one and most consistent major performer entering the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, though his season includes just one victory and mixed recent results that have tempered expectations for a career Grand Slam. The tightly bunched probabilities across the rest of the field stem from the event's demanding setup on a historic, penal course that rewards elite ball-striking and course management over raw power, creating realistic paths for players like Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Xander Schauffele who bring strong recent major form or prior success on similar tests. No dominant favorite has emerged because the U.S. Open historically produces varied winners amid shifting conditions and the depth of the PGA Tour roster.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPGA Tour: U.S. Open Winner
PGA Tour: U.S. Open Winner
Wyndham Clark 100.0%
Si Woo Kim 1.9%
Harris English 1.9%
Alexander Noren 1.9%
$5,461,258 Vol.
$5,461,258 Vol.
Patrick Reed
No
Michael Kim
No
Andrew Novak
No
Max McGreevy
No
John Parry
No
Patrick Rodgers
No
William Mouw
No
Caleb Surratt
No
Matthew Jordan
No
Laurie Canter
No
Jimmy Stanger
No
Kevin Roy
No
Zac Blair
No
Cole Hammer
No
Nick Hardy
No
Graeme McDowell
No
Ludvig Aberg
No
Harry Higgs
No
Wyndham Clark
Yes
Justin Rose
No
Si Woo Kim
No
Patrick Cantlay
No
Chris Gotterup
No
J.J. Spaun
No
Robert MacIntyre
No
Ben Griffin
No
Min Woo Lee
No
Harris English
No
Maverick McNealy
No
Aaron Rai
No
Alexander Noren
No
Alex Fitzpatrick
No
Gary Woodland
No
Keith Mitchell
No
Scottie Scheffler
No
Rory McIlroy
No
Matt Fitzpatrick
No
Xander Schauffele
No
Cameron Young
No
Bryson DeChambeau
No
Sam Burns
No
Collin Morikawa
No
Justin Thomas
No
Hideki Matsuyama
No
Jordan Spieth
No
Shane Lowry
No
Joaquin Niemann
No
Keegan Bradley
No
Jackson Koivun
No
Sepp Straka
No
David Puig
No
Ryan Fox
No
Harry Hall
No
Jake Knapp
No
Daniel Berger
No
Tom Kim
No
Davis Thompson
No
Jayden Schaper
No
Sam Stevens
No
Ryo Hisatsune
No
Max Greyserman
No
Jackson Suber
No
Tommy Fleetwood
No
Brooks Koepka
No
Tyrrell Hatton
No
Bud Cauley
No
Akshay Bhatia
No
Cameron Smith
No
Alex Smalley
No
Rickie Fowler
No
Dustin Johnson
No
Jacob Bridgeman
No
Jon Rahm
No
Russell Henley
No
Viktor Hovland
No
Kurt Kitayama
No
Kristoffer Reitan
No
Ryan Gerard
No
Adam Scott
No
JT Poston
No
Jason Day
No
Corey Conners
No
Sung-Jae Im
No
Brian Harman
No
Nick Taylor
No
Sahith Theegala
No
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
No
Lucas Herbert
No
Pierceson Coody
No
Matt McCarty
No
Johnny Keefer
No
Michael Brennan
No
Carlos Ortiz
No
Chris Kirk
No
Billy Horschel
No
Andrew Putnam
No
Emiliano Grillo
No
Nathan Kimsey
No
Benjamin James
No
Ben Kohles
No
Nicolas Echavarria
No
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
No
Wyndham Clark 100.0%
Si Woo Kim 1.9%
Harris English 1.9%
Alexander Noren 1.9%
$5,461,258 Vol.
$5,461,258 Vol.
Patrick Reed
No
Michael Kim
No
Andrew Novak
No
Max McGreevy
No
John Parry
No
Patrick Rodgers
No
William Mouw
No
Caleb Surratt
No
Matthew Jordan
No
Laurie Canter
No
Jimmy Stanger
No
Kevin Roy
No
Zac Blair
No
Cole Hammer
No
Nick Hardy
No
Graeme McDowell
No
Ludvig Aberg
No
Harry Higgs
No
Wyndham Clark
Yes
Justin Rose
No
Si Woo Kim
No
Patrick Cantlay
No
Chris Gotterup
No
J.J. Spaun
No
Robert MacIntyre
No
Ben Griffin
No
Min Woo Lee
No
Harris English
No
Maverick McNealy
No
Aaron Rai
No
Alexander Noren
No
Alex Fitzpatrick
No
Gary Woodland
No
Keith Mitchell
No
Scottie Scheffler
No
Rory McIlroy
No
Matt Fitzpatrick
No
Xander Schauffele
No
Cameron Young
No
Bryson DeChambeau
No
Sam Burns
No
Collin Morikawa
No
Justin Thomas
No
Hideki Matsuyama
No
Jordan Spieth
No
Shane Lowry
No
Joaquin Niemann
No
Keegan Bradley
No
Jackson Koivun
No
Sepp Straka
No
David Puig
No
Ryan Fox
No
Harry Hall
No
Jake Knapp
No
Daniel Berger
No
Tom Kim
No
Davis Thompson
No
Jayden Schaper
No
Sam Stevens
No
Ryo Hisatsune
No
Max Greyserman
No
Jackson Suber
No
Tommy Fleetwood
No
Brooks Koepka
No
Tyrrell Hatton
No
Bud Cauley
No
Akshay Bhatia
No
Cameron Smith
No
Alex Smalley
No
Rickie Fowler
No
Dustin Johnson
No
Jacob Bridgeman
No
Jon Rahm
No
Russell Henley
No
Viktor Hovland
No
Kurt Kitayama
No
Kristoffer Reitan
No
Ryan Gerard
No
Adam Scott
No
JT Poston
No
Jason Day
No
Corey Conners
No
Sung-Jae Im
No
Brian Harman
No
Nick Taylor
No
Sahith Theegala
No
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
No
Lucas Herbert
No
Pierceson Coody
No
Matt McCarty
No
Johnny Keefer
No
Michael Brennan
No
Carlos Ortiz
No
Chris Kirk
No
Billy Horschel
No
Andrew Putnam
No
Emiliano Grillo
No
Nathan Kimsey
No
Benjamin James
No
Ben Kohles
No
Nicolas Echavarria
No
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
No
If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the U.S. Open tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No".
If an unlisted player wins the U.S. Open tournament this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If no winner is announced by June 27, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Market Opened: Jun 15, 2026, 12:12 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the U.S. Open tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No".
If an unlisted player wins the U.S. Open tournament this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If no winner is announced by June 27, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Scottie Scheffler holds the highest implied probability at 13.5% as the world number one and most consistent major performer entering the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, though his season includes just one victory and mixed recent results that have tempered expectations for a career Grand Slam. The tightly bunched probabilities across the rest of the field stem from the event's demanding setup on a historic, penal course that rewards elite ball-striking and course management over raw power, creating realistic paths for players like Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Xander Schauffele who bring strong recent major form or prior success on similar tests. No dominant favorite has emerged because the U.S. Open historically produces varied winners amid shifting conditions and the depth of the PGA Tour roster.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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