Tom Pelphrey’s first Primetime Emmy win for his layered portrayal of Robbie Prendergrast in HBO’s “Task” has locked in overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Critics and guild voters praised the performance’s emotional depth, particularly its resonance with themes of fatherhood and moral ambiguity in a working-class Philadelphia setting, which aligned with Pelphrey’s own recent life experiences. “Task” earned multiple nominations and strong precursor momentum, outpacing ensemble contenders from “The Pitt” despite that series’ critical dominance. An upset would have required a late surge from established names like Billy Crudup or a surprise guild sweep, but the ceremony outcome on September 14 eliminated those paths.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series
Tom Pelphrey – “Task” 100.0%
Patrick Ball – “The Pitt” <1%
Billy Crudup – “The Morning Show” <1%
Shawn Hatosy – “The Pitt” <1%
$51,722 Vol.
$51,722 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
Patrick Ball – “The Pitt”
No
Billy Crudup – “The Morning Show”
No
Shawn Hatosy – “The Pitt”
No
Gerran Howell – “The Pitt”
No
Jack Lowden – “Slow Horses”
No
Tom Pelphrey – “Task”
Yes
Carlos-Manuel Vesga – “Pluribus”
No
Tom Pelphrey – “Task” 100.0%
Patrick Ball – “The Pitt” <1%
Billy Crudup – “The Morning Show” <1%
Shawn Hatosy – “The Pitt” <1%
$51,722 Vol.
$51,722 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
Patrick Ball – “The Pitt”
$16,966 Vol.
No
Billy Crudup – “The Morning Show”
$3,057 Vol.
No
Shawn Hatosy – “The Pitt”
$6,654 Vol.
No
Gerran Howell – “The Pitt”
$927 Vol.
No
Jack Lowden – “Slow Horses”
$2,951 Vol.
No
Tom Pelphrey – “Task”
$18,969 Vol.
Yes
Carlos-Manuel Vesga – “Pluribus”
$2,198 Vol.
No
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tom Pelphrey’s first Primetime Emmy win for his layered portrayal of Robbie Prendergrast in HBO’s “Task” has locked in overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Critics and guild voters praised the performance’s emotional depth, particularly its resonance with themes of fatherhood and moral ambiguity in a working-class Philadelphia setting, which aligned with Pelphrey’s own recent life experiences. “Task” earned multiple nominations and strong precursor momentum, outpacing ensemble contenders from “The Pitt” despite that series’ critical dominance. An upset would have required a late surge from established names like Billy Crudup or a surprise guild sweep, but the ceremony outcome on September 14 eliminated those paths.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$51,722End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tom Pelphrey’s first Primetime Emmy win for his layered portrayal of Robbie Prendergrast in HBO’s “Task” has locked in overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Critics and guild voters praised the performance’s emotional depth, particularly its resonance with themes of fatherhood and moral ambiguity in a working-class Philadelphia setting, which aligned with Pelphrey’s own recent life experiences. “Task” earned multiple nominations and strong precursor momentum, outpacing ensemble contenders from “The Pitt” despite that series’ critical dominance. An upset would have required a late surge from established names like Billy Crudup or a surprise guild sweep, but the ceremony outcome on September 14 eliminated those paths.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$51,722End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Tom Pelphrey’s first Primetime Emmy win for his layered portrayal of Robbie Prendergrast in HBO’s “Task” has locked in overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Critics and guild voters praised the performance’s emotional depth, particularly its resonance with themes of fatherhood and moral ambiguity in a working-class Philadelphia setting, which aligned with Pelphrey’s own recent life experiences. “Task” earned multiple nominations and strong precursor momentum, outpacing ensemble contenders from “The Pitt” despite that series’ critical dominance. An upset would have required a late surge from established names like Billy Crudup or a surprise guild sweep, but the ceremony outcome on September 14 eliminated those paths.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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