Following President Trump's April 18 executive order directing accelerated development of psychedelic therapies for serious mental illnesses like PTSD and treatment-resistant depression, the FDA on April 24 issued Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers to Compass Pathways for its COMP360 psilocybin, Usona Institute, and Transcend Therapeutics for methylone, enabling ultra-fast priority reviews and rolling New Drug Application submissions. Compass's successful Phase 3 trial results in February further bolstered prospects, with FDA Commissioner Marty Makary indicating potential approvals as early as summer 2026. These regulatory advances explain trader consensus implying 55.5% odds of FDA approval for a psychedelic in 2026, though full clinical validation remains required amid prior MDMA setbacks, highlighting the competitive path ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$46,130 Vol.
$46,130 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$46,130 Vol.
$46,130 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves any psychedelic substance for medical use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Psychedelic substances include: LSD, Psilocybin, DMT, Mescaline, MDMA, MDA, PCP, DXM, Ibogaine, Salvia divinorum, 2C family, and Ayahuasca.
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following President Trump's April 18 executive order directing accelerated development of psychedelic therapies for serious mental illnesses like PTSD and treatment-resistant depression, the FDA on April 24 issued Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers to Compass Pathways for its COMP360 psilocybin, Usona Institute, and Transcend Therapeutics for methylone, enabling ultra-fast priority reviews and rolling New Drug Application submissions. Compass's successful Phase 3 trial results in February further bolstered prospects, with FDA Commissioner Marty Makary indicating potential approvals as early as summer 2026. These regulatory advances explain trader consensus implying 55.5% odds of FDA approval for a psychedelic in 2026, though full clinical validation remains required amid prior MDMA setbacks, highlighting the competitive path ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves any psychedelic substance for medical use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Psychedelic substances include: LSD, Psilocybin, DMT, Mescaline, MDMA, MDA, PCP, DXM, Ibogaine, Salvia divinorum, 2C family, and Ayahuasca.
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Psychedelic substances include: LSD, Psilocybin, DMT, Mescaline, MDMA, MDA, PCP, DXM, Ibogaine, Salvia divinorum, 2C family, and Ayahuasca.
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
Volume
$46,130End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves any psychedelic substance for medical use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Psychedelic substances include: LSD, Psilocybin, DMT, Mescaline, MDMA, MDA, PCP, DXM, Ibogaine, Salvia divinorum, 2C family, and Ayahuasca.
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following President Trump's April 18 executive order directing accelerated development of psychedelic therapies for serious mental illnesses like PTSD and treatment-resistant depression, the FDA on April 24 issued Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers to Compass Pathways for its COMP360 psilocybin, Usona Institute, and Transcend Therapeutics for methylone, enabling ultra-fast priority reviews and rolling New Drug Application submissions. Compass's successful Phase 3 trial results in February further bolstered prospects, with FDA Commissioner Marty Makary indicating potential approvals as early as summer 2026. These regulatory advances explain trader consensus implying 55.5% odds of FDA approval for a psychedelic in 2026, though full clinical validation remains required amid prior MDMA setbacks, highlighting the competitive path ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves any psychedelic substance for medical use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Psychedelic substances include: LSD, Psilocybin, DMT, Mescaline, MDMA, MDA, PCP, DXM, Ibogaine, Salvia divinorum, 2C family, and Ayahuasca.
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Psychedelic substances include: LSD, Psilocybin, DMT, Mescaline, MDMA, MDA, PCP, DXM, Ibogaine, Salvia divinorum, 2C family, and Ayahuasca.
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$46,130End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Following President Trump's April 18 executive order directing accelerated development of psychedelic therapies for serious mental illnesses like PTSD and treatment-resistant depression, the FDA on April 24 issued Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers to Compass Pathways for its COMP360 psilocybin, Usona Institute, and Transcend Therapeutics for methylone, enabling ultra-fast priority reviews and rolling New Drug Application submissions. Compass's successful Phase 3 trial results in February further bolstered prospects, with FDA Commissioner Marty Makary indicating potential approvals as early as summer 2026. These regulatory advances explain trader consensus implying 55.5% odds of FDA approval for a psychedelic in 2026, though full clinical validation remains required amid prior MDMA setbacks, highlighting the competitive path ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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