Seasonal influenza patterns strongly favor the leading market-implied odds for a flu hospitalization rate below 0.1 during week 30 of 2026. Late July falls well outside the typical October–May transmission window in the Northern Hemisphere, when CDC surveillance consistently records near-zero activity and rates well under the 0.1 threshold per 100,000 population. Current summer conditions—higher temperatures, lower humidity, and school closures—further suppress spread, aligning with historical baselines showing minimal cases until fall resurgence. Trader consensus on this outcome reflects these reliable epidemiological cycles, though early southern-hemisphere signals or unexpected variants could introduce minor upward pressure if they arrive ahead of schedule. Updated CDC FluView reports in coming weeks will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 30, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 30, 2026?
<0.1 62%
>0.1 22%
0.1 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
<0.1
67%
0.1
23%
>0.1
22%
<0.1 62%
>0.1 22%
0.1 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
<0.1
$161 Vol.
67%
0.1
$367 Vol.
23%
>0.1
$140 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Seasonal influenza patterns strongly favor the leading market-implied odds for a flu hospitalization rate below 0.1 during week 30 of 2026. Late July falls well outside the typical October–May transmission window in the Northern Hemisphere, when CDC surveillance consistently records near-zero activity and rates well under the 0.1 threshold per 100,000 population. Current summer conditions—higher temperatures, lower humidity, and school closures—further suppress spread, aligning with historical baselines showing minimal cases until fall resurgence. Trader consensus on this outcome reflects these reliable epidemiological cycles, though early southern-hemisphere signals or unexpected variants could introduce minor upward pressure if they arrive ahead of schedule. Updated CDC FluView reports in coming weeks will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$668End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Seasonal influenza patterns strongly favor the leading market-implied odds for a flu hospitalization rate below 0.1 during week 30 of 2026. Late July falls well outside the typical October–May transmission window in the Northern Hemisphere, when CDC surveillance consistently records near-zero activity and rates well under the 0.1 threshold per 100,000 population. Current summer conditions—higher temperatures, lower humidity, and school closures—further suppress spread, aligning with historical baselines showing minimal cases until fall resurgence. Trader consensus on this outcome reflects these reliable epidemiological cycles, though early southern-hemisphere signals or unexpected variants could introduce minor upward pressure if they arrive ahead of schedule. Updated CDC FluView reports in coming weeks will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$668End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Seasonal influenza patterns strongly favor the leading market-implied odds for a flu hospitalization rate below 0.1 during week 30 of 2026. Late July falls well outside the typical October–May transmission window in the Northern Hemisphere, when CDC surveillance consistently records near-zero activity and rates well under the 0.1 threshold per 100,000 population. Current summer conditions—higher temperatures, lower humidity, and school closures—further suppress spread, aligning with historical baselines showing minimal cases until fall resurgence. Trader consensus on this outcome reflects these reliable epidemiological cycles, though early southern-hemisphere signals or unexpected variants could introduce minor upward pressure if they arrive ahead of schedule. Updated CDC FluView reports in coming weeks will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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