Incumbent Democrat Josh Green holds a commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race due to the state's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent election results favoring the party. Green benefits from incumbency, name recognition from his 2022 victory, and public approval tied to his response to the 2023 Maui wildfires. Republican primary contenders such as Gary Cordery and Ken Fujiyama remain low-profile with limited statewide support, while Democratic challengers in the August 8 primary have not emerged as serious threats. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic. Scenarios that could shift outcomes include a significant late scandal, health-related withdrawal by Green, or an unusually strong Republican turnout, though these remain low-probability based on current polling and structural factors ahead of the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Hawaii Governor Election Winner
Hawaii Governor Election Winner
最新
最新
2026-11-03
Democrat
94%
Republican
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
Democrat
$3,329 交易量
94%
Republican
$4,491 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Josh Green holds a commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race due to the state's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent election results favoring the party. Green benefits from incumbency, name recognition from his 2022 victory, and public approval tied to his response to the 2023 Maui wildfires. Republican primary contenders such as Gary Cordery and Ken Fujiyama remain low-profile with limited statewide support, while Democratic challengers in the August 8 primary have not emerged as serious threats. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic. Scenarios that could shift outcomes include a significant late scandal, health-related withdrawal by Green, or an unusually strong Republican turnout, though these remain low-probability based on current polling and structural factors ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
交易量
$7,820结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Josh Green holds a commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race due to the state's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent election results favoring the party. Green benefits from incumbency, name recognition from his 2022 victory, and public approval tied to his response to the 2023 Maui wildfires. Republican primary contenders such as Gary Cordery and Ken Fujiyama remain low-profile with limited statewide support, while Democratic challengers in the August 8 primary have not emerged as serious threats. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic. Scenarios that could shift outcomes include a significant late scandal, health-related withdrawal by Green, or an unusually strong Republican turnout, though these remain low-probability based on current polling and structural factors ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$7,820结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Green holds a commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race due to the state's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent election results favoring the party. Green benefits from incumbency, name recognition from his 2022 victory, and public approval tied to his response to the 2023 Maui wildfires. Republican primary contenders such as Gary Cordery and Ken Fujiyama remain low-profile with limited statewide support, while Democratic challengers in the August 8 primary have not emerged as serious threats. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic. Scenarios that could shift outcomes include a significant late scandal, health-related withdrawal by Green, or an unusually strong Republican turnout, though these remain low-probability based on current polling and structural factors ahead of the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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