**Trader sentiment for Amsterdam’s June 24 maximum temperature centers on a narrow cluster around 32–34 °C (collectively ~76 % implied probability), reflecting the current consensus from short-range ensemble forecasts amid an active early-summer heat episode.** A broad high-pressure ridge has advected warm subtropical air northward across western Europe, producing subsidence warming, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation. This setup has already delivered the Netherlands’ second regional heat wave of 2026, with inland maxima reaching 35 °C earlier in the week and a national Heat Plan in force. For June 24 specifically, operational guidance from KNMI and global models (ECMWF, GFS) points to a peak near 30–32 °C in the Amsterdam urban area, where the moderating influence of the North Sea and local sea-breeze circulation typically caps extremes relative to inland sites. The tight spread between 32 °C (30 %) and 33 °C (27.5 %) arises from small differences in ensemble members regarding exact timing of any weak frontal boundary, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification. A slightly stronger or more persistent ridge could push readings to 34 °C (19 %), while any earlier increase in cloud cover or onshore flow would favor the lower tail (31 °C or below at only 6 %). Longer-tail outcomes above 35 °C remain low-probability because climatological June maxima for the city are lower and current model consensus shows limited additional warming potential before the period ends. Traders are therefore weighting the latest high-resolution runs and local observations heavily, with the market-implied distribution closely tracking the width of the forecast uncertainty envelope rather than a single deterministic value.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on June 24?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on June 24?
34°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$71,958 Vol.
$71,958 Vol.
31°C or below
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
Yes
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
No
34°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$71,958 Vol.
$71,958 Vol.
31°C or below
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
Yes
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader sentiment for Amsterdam’s June 24 maximum temperature centers on a narrow cluster around 32–34 °C (collectively ~76 % implied probability), reflecting the current consensus from short-range ensemble forecasts amid an active early-summer heat episode.** A broad high-pressure ridge has advected warm subtropical air northward across western Europe, producing subsidence warming, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation. This setup has already delivered the Netherlands’ second regional heat wave of 2026, with inland maxima reaching 35 °C earlier in the week and a national Heat Plan in force. For June 24 specifically, operational guidance from KNMI and global models (ECMWF, GFS) points to a peak near 30–32 °C in the Amsterdam urban area, where the moderating influence of the North Sea and local sea-breeze circulation typically caps extremes relative to inland sites. The tight spread between 32 °C (30 %) and 33 °C (27.5 %) arises from small differences in ensemble members regarding exact timing of any weak frontal boundary, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification. A slightly stronger or more persistent ridge could push readings to 34 °C (19 %), while any earlier increase in cloud cover or onshore flow would favor the lower tail (31 °C or below at only 6 %). Longer-tail outcomes above 35 °C remain low-probability because climatological June maxima for the city are lower and current model consensus shows limited additional warming potential before the period ends. Traders are therefore weighting the latest high-resolution runs and local observations heavily, with the market-implied distribution closely tracking the width of the forecast uncertainty envelope rather than a single deterministic value.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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