Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance for Madrid on July 21 centers on a maximum near 38°C under stable high pressure, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s record warmth. This consensus, supported by consistent 36–40°C ranges across deterministic runs, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 38°C and 39°C outcomes. Day-to-day variability in steering flow and boundary-layer mixing keeps 37°C and 40°C viable, while probabilities drop sharply outside that band given the short-range forecast skill and absence of extreme heat-dome signals in the latest updates. Traders are thus pricing the most probable range consistent with official guidance rather than historical July averages near 32°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on July 21?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 21?
38°C 49%
37°C 28%
39°C 18%
36°C 4.4%
NEW
NEW
Jul 21, 2026
34°C or below
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
4%
37°C
28%
38°C
49%
39°C
18%
40°C
3%
41°C
1%
42°C
1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
38°C 49%
37°C 28%
39°C 18%
36°C 4.4%
NEW
NEW
Jul 21, 2026
34°C or below
$170 Vol.
1%
35°C
$176 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$200 Vol.
4%
37°C
$650 Vol.
28%
38°C
$608 Vol.
49%
39°C
$2,183 Vol.
18%
40°C
$312 Vol.
3%
41°C
$243 Vol.
1%
42°C
$304 Vol.
1%
43°C
$426 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$118 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance for Madrid on July 21 centers on a maximum near 38°C under stable high pressure, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s record warmth. This consensus, supported by consistent 36–40°C ranges across deterministic runs, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 38°C and 39°C outcomes. Day-to-day variability in steering flow and boundary-layer mixing keeps 37°C and 40°C viable, while probabilities drop sharply outside that band given the short-range forecast skill and absence of extreme heat-dome signals in the latest updates. Traders are thus pricing the most probable range consistent with official guidance rather than historical July averages near 32°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$5,389End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance for Madrid on July 21 centers on a maximum near 38°C under stable high pressure, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s record warmth. This consensus, supported by consistent 36–40°C ranges across deterministic runs, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 38°C and 39°C outcomes. Day-to-day variability in steering flow and boundary-layer mixing keeps 37°C and 40°C viable, while probabilities drop sharply outside that band given the short-range forecast skill and absence of extreme heat-dome signals in the latest updates. Traders are thus pricing the most probable range consistent with official guidance rather than historical July averages near 32°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,389End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance for Madrid on July 21 centers on a maximum near 38°C under stable high pressure, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s record warmth. This consensus, supported by consistent 36–40°C ranges across deterministic runs, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 38°C and 39°C outcomes. Day-to-day variability in steering flow and boundary-layer mixing keeps 37°C and 40°C viable, while probabilities drop sharply outside that band given the short-range forecast skill and absence of extreme heat-dome signals in the latest updates. Traders are thus pricing the most probable range consistent with official guidance rather than historical July averages near 32°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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