Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a maximum temperature near 31–33°C for Beijing on July 19, driven by strong July solar insolation, moderate southerly flow, and urban heat island effects that typically elevate city-center readings. Afternoon convective clouds or isolated thunderstorms—common in the East Asian monsoon regime—could cap the peak by limiting surface heating, creating the narrow spread between 32°C and 34°C outcomes that dominate trader positioning. Historical July climatology shows average highs of 31–32°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2–3°C, while ensemble spread in short-range forecasts remains modest this close to the date. Updated model runs and observational adjustments over the next 48 hours will likely refine the precise maximum before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on July 19?
Highest temperature in Beijing on July 19?
32°C 33%
33°C 29%
31°C 19%
34°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 19, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
9%
31°C
19%
32°C
33%
33°C
29%
34°C
11%
35°C
6%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 33%
33°C 29%
31°C 19%
34°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 19, 2026
28°C or below
$380 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$21 Vol.
2%
30°C
$35 Vol.
9%
31°C
$18 Vol.
19%
32°C
$44 Vol.
33%
33°C
$60 Vol.
29%
34°C
$141 Vol.
11%
35°C
$17 Vol.
6%
36°C
$51 Vol.
1%
37°C
$45 Vol.
1%
38°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a maximum temperature near 31–33°C for Beijing on July 19, driven by strong July solar insolation, moderate southerly flow, and urban heat island effects that typically elevate city-center readings. Afternoon convective clouds or isolated thunderstorms—common in the East Asian monsoon regime—could cap the peak by limiting surface heating, creating the narrow spread between 32°C and 34°C outcomes that dominate trader positioning. Historical July climatology shows average highs of 31–32°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2–3°C, while ensemble spread in short-range forecasts remains modest this close to the date. Updated model runs and observational adjustments over the next 48 hours will likely refine the precise maximum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$849End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a maximum temperature near 31–33°C for Beijing on July 19, driven by strong July solar insolation, moderate southerly flow, and urban heat island effects that typically elevate city-center readings. Afternoon convective clouds or isolated thunderstorms—common in the East Asian monsoon regime—could cap the peak by limiting surface heating, creating the narrow spread between 32°C and 34°C outcomes that dominate trader positioning. Historical July climatology shows average highs of 31–32°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2–3°C, while ensemble spread in short-range forecasts remains modest this close to the date. Updated model runs and observational adjustments over the next 48 hours will likely refine the precise maximum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$849End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a maximum temperature near 31–33°C for Beijing on July 19, driven by strong July solar insolation, moderate southerly flow, and urban heat island effects that typically elevate city-center readings. Afternoon convective clouds or isolated thunderstorms—common in the East Asian monsoon regime—could cap the peak by limiting surface heating, creating the narrow spread between 32°C and 34°C outcomes that dominate trader positioning. Historical July climatology shows average highs of 31–32°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2–3°C, while ensemble spread in short-range forecasts remains modest this close to the date. Updated model runs and observational adjustments over the next 48 hours will likely refine the precise maximum before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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