**Latest official and model guidance for Warsaw on July 19, 2026, centers on a daily maximum of 25–27°C, with the market-implied probabilities (27°C at 35.5%, 26°C at 27%) reflecting tight ensemble spread in global numerical weather prediction systems such as ECMWF and GFS.** Forecasts from sources including the UK Met Office (26°C) and BBC Weather (25°C) align with this range, while longer-term climatology places the July average high near 24–25°C. Recent developments include a late-June European heatwave that set Polish records above 40°C, followed by cooler early-July conditions; the current setup shows a moderating high-pressure influence with limited cloud cover and southerly flow, supporting modest warming above baseline without extreme advection. Differentiation between the closely matched leading outcomes hinges on small variations in key physical processes: surface solar insolation under partly clear skies, the precise timing and strength of any weak frontal passage that could increase low-level moisture or reduce daytime heating, boundary-layer mixing depth, and minor differences in 850 hPa temperatures across model members. Ensembles capture this uncertainty, keeping 26°C and 27°C probabilities highest while assigning low odds to outliers above 29°C or below 24°C. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 19?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 19?
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$41,417 Vol.
$41,417 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$41,417 Vol.
$41,417 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
23°C or below
$2,243 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,965 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,602 Vol.
No
26°C
$7,137 Vol.
No
27°C
$11,710 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$7,808 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,259 Vol.
No
30°C
$832 Vol.
No
31°C
$572 Vol.
No
32°C
$161 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$127 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest official and model guidance for Warsaw on July 19, 2026, centers on a daily maximum of 25–27°C, with the market-implied probabilities (27°C at 35.5%, 26°C at 27%) reflecting tight ensemble spread in global numerical weather prediction systems such as ECMWF and GFS.**
Forecasts from sources including the UK Met Office (26°C) and BBC Weather (25°C) align with this range, while longer-term climatology places the July average high near 24–25°C. Recent developments include a late-June European heatwave that set Polish records above 40°C, followed by cooler early-July conditions; the current setup shows a moderating high-pressure influence with limited cloud cover and southerly flow, supporting modest warming above baseline without extreme advection.
Differentiation between the closely matched leading outcomes hinges on small variations in key physical processes: surface solar insolation under partly clear skies, the precise timing and strength of any weak frontal passage that could increase low-level moisture or reduce daytime heating, boundary-layer mixing depth, and minor differences in 850 hPa temperatures across model members. Ensembles capture this uncertainty, keeping 26°C and 27°C probabilities highest while assigning low odds to outliers above 29°C or below 24°C. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$41,417End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest official and model guidance for Warsaw on July 19, 2026, centers on a daily maximum of 25–27°C, with the market-implied probabilities (27°C at 35.5%, 26°C at 27%) reflecting tight ensemble spread in global numerical weather prediction systems such as ECMWF and GFS.**
Forecasts from sources including the UK Met Office (26°C) and BBC Weather (25°C) align with this range, while longer-term climatology places the July average high near 24–25°C. Recent developments include a late-June European heatwave that set Polish records above 40°C, followed by cooler early-July conditions; the current setup shows a moderating high-pressure influence with limited cloud cover and southerly flow, supporting modest warming above baseline without extreme advection.
Differentiation between the closely matched leading outcomes hinges on small variations in key physical processes: surface solar insolation under partly clear skies, the precise timing and strength of any weak frontal passage that could increase low-level moisture or reduce daytime heating, boundary-layer mixing depth, and minor differences in 850 hPa temperatures across model members. Ensembles capture this uncertainty, keeping 26°C and 27°C probabilities highest while assigning low odds to outliers above 29°C or below 24°C. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$41,417End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Latest official and model guidance for Warsaw on July 19, 2026, centers on a daily maximum of 25–27°C, with the market-implied probabilities (27°C at 35.5%, 26°C at 27%) reflecting tight ensemble spread in global numerical weather prediction systems such as ECMWF and GFS.** Forecasts from sources including the UK Met Office (26°C) and BBC Weather (25°C) align with this range, while longer-term climatology places the July average high near 24–25°C. Recent developments include a late-June European heatwave that set Polish records above 40°C, followed by cooler early-July conditions; the current setup shows a moderating high-pressure influence with limited cloud cover and southerly flow, supporting modest warming above baseline without extreme advection. Differentiation between the closely matched leading outcomes hinges on small variations in key physical processes: surface solar insolation under partly clear skies, the precise timing and strength of any weak frontal passage that could increase low-level moisture or reduce daytime heating, boundary-layer mixing depth, and minor differences in 850 hPa temperatures across model members. Ensembles capture this uncertainty, keeping 26°C and 27°C probabilities highest while assigning low odds to outliers above 29°C or below 24°C. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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