Trader consensus for Chicago’s July 20 high clusters tightly around the 82–87 °F range because National Weather Service ensemble guidance shows moderate high pressure and northwesterly flow limiting daytime heating, with dew points in the mid-60s restricting moisture advection and boundary-layer mixing. This setup keeps maxima near or just below the July 20 climatological normal of 84.7 °F, producing the near-even split between the 84–85 °F and 86–87 °F bins while assigning sharply lower odds to 88 °F-plus outcomes. Recent model runs highlight lingering uncertainty in cloud-cover timing and subtle warm-air advection that could nudge readings a degree or two higher or lower, consistent with the balanced market pricing ahead of the final forecast updates on resolution day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on July 20?
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 20?
84-85°F 31%
86-87°F 27%
88-89°F 14%
80-81°F 13%
NEW
$16,733 Vol.
NEW
$16,733 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
13%
82-83°F
13%
84-85°F
31%
86-87°F
27%
88-89°F
14%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 31%
86-87°F 27%
88-89°F 14%
80-81°F 13%
NEW
$16,733 Vol.
NEW
$16,733 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
79°F or below
$366 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$2,065 Vol.
13%
82-83°F
$1,416 Vol.
13%
84-85°F
$2,838 Vol.
31%
86-87°F
$4,454 Vol.
27%
88-89°F
$703 Vol.
14%
90-91°F
$876 Vol.
10%
92-93°F
$323 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$395 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$2,983 Vol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$316 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus for Chicago’s July 20 high clusters tightly around the 82–87 °F range because National Weather Service ensemble guidance shows moderate high pressure and northwesterly flow limiting daytime heating, with dew points in the mid-60s restricting moisture advection and boundary-layer mixing. This setup keeps maxima near or just below the July 20 climatological normal of 84.7 °F, producing the near-even split between the 84–85 °F and 86–87 °F bins while assigning sharply lower odds to 88 °F-plus outcomes. Recent model runs highlight lingering uncertainty in cloud-cover timing and subtle warm-air advection that could nudge readings a degree or two higher or lower, consistent with the balanced market pricing ahead of the final forecast updates on resolution day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 18, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$16,733End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus for Chicago’s July 20 high clusters tightly around the 82–87 °F range because National Weather Service ensemble guidance shows moderate high pressure and northwesterly flow limiting daytime heating, with dew points in the mid-60s restricting moisture advection and boundary-layer mixing. This setup keeps maxima near or just below the July 20 climatological normal of 84.7 °F, producing the near-even split between the 84–85 °F and 86–87 °F bins while assigning sharply lower odds to 88 °F-plus outcomes. Recent model runs highlight lingering uncertainty in cloud-cover timing and subtle warm-air advection that could nudge readings a degree or two higher or lower, consistent with the balanced market pricing ahead of the final forecast updates on resolution day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,733End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus for Chicago’s July 20 high clusters tightly around the 82–87 °F range because National Weather Service ensemble guidance shows moderate high pressure and northwesterly flow limiting daytime heating, with dew points in the mid-60s restricting moisture advection and boundary-layer mixing. This setup keeps maxima near or just below the July 20 climatological normal of 84.7 °F, producing the near-even split between the 84–85 °F and 86–87 °F bins while assigning sharply lower odds to 88 °F-plus outcomes. Recent model runs highlight lingering uncertainty in cloud-cover timing and subtle warm-air advection that could nudge readings a degree or two higher or lower, consistent with the balanced market pricing ahead of the final forecast updates on resolution day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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