Traders assign the highest implied probability (39.5%) to a peak of 80–81°F in Chicago on July 19, reflecting National Weather Service model consensus for moderate high pressure and northwesterly flow limiting daytime heating. Recent ensemble runs show surface temperatures constrained by dew points in the mid-60s and limited southerly moisture advection, keeping maxima below the seasonal normal near 84°F. Secondary outcomes at 78–79°F (23%) and 82–83°F (21.5%) capture uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover timing, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F due to the absence of strong warm advection in the latest guidance. Updated model cycles expected overnight will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on July 19?
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 19?
80-81°F 45%
78-79°F 31%
82-83°F 14%
76-77°F 7%
NEW
$11,343 Vol.
NEW
$11,343 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
7%
78-79°F
31%
80-81°F
45%
82-83°F
14%
84-85°F
3%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 45%
78-79°F 31%
82-83°F 14%
76-77°F 7%
NEW
$11,343 Vol.
NEW
$11,343 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
71°F or below
$128 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$1,629 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,055 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$358 Vol.
7%
78-79°F
$1,716 Vol.
31%
80-81°F
$1,626 Vol.
45%
82-83°F
$320 Vol.
14%
84-85°F
$416 Vol.
3%
86-87°F
$352 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$2,385 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$1,359 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (39.5%) to a peak of 80–81°F in Chicago on July 19, reflecting National Weather Service model consensus for moderate high pressure and northwesterly flow limiting daytime heating. Recent ensemble runs show surface temperatures constrained by dew points in the mid-60s and limited southerly moisture advection, keeping maxima below the seasonal normal near 84°F. Secondary outcomes at 78–79°F (23%) and 82–83°F (21.5%) capture uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover timing, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F due to the absence of strong warm advection in the latest guidance. Updated model cycles expected overnight will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$11,343End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (39.5%) to a peak of 80–81°F in Chicago on July 19, reflecting National Weather Service model consensus for moderate high pressure and northwesterly flow limiting daytime heating. Recent ensemble runs show surface temperatures constrained by dew points in the mid-60s and limited southerly moisture advection, keeping maxima below the seasonal normal near 84°F. Secondary outcomes at 78–79°F (23%) and 82–83°F (21.5%) capture uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover timing, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F due to the absence of strong warm advection in the latest guidance. Updated model cycles expected overnight will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,343End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability (39.5%) to a peak of 80–81°F in Chicago on July 19, reflecting National Weather Service model consensus for moderate high pressure and northwesterly flow limiting daytime heating. Recent ensemble runs show surface temperatures constrained by dew points in the mid-60s and limited southerly moisture advection, keeping maxima below the seasonal normal near 84°F. Secondary outcomes at 78–79°F (23%) and 82–83°F (21.5%) capture uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover timing, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F due to the absence of strong warm advection in the latest guidance. Updated model cycles expected overnight will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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