**Current short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS ensembles positions Ankara’s July 18 daily maximum near 30–31 °C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly flow across the Anatolian plateau.** These conditions favor strong daytime solar heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation, aligning with Ankara’s July climatological average high of approximately 31 °C. Recent forecasts from BBC Weather and timeanddate.com explicitly project a 31 °C high for the 18th, while broader monthly outlooks show a 28.5–33.3 °C envelope centered on 32 °C. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 29–31 °C because ensemble spreads remain narrow this close to the event, reflecting stable synoptic forcing rather than significant model disagreement or incoming frontal systems. Minor downward revisions in some runs (favoring 29–30 °C) versus slight upward potential under drier boundary-layer mixing explain the near-even split among the three leading outcomes, with traders discounting extremes below 28 °C or above 32 °C given the absence of heatwave or cooling signals in the latest guidance. Official observations will resolve the contract based on the 12:00 UTC maximum at the primary Ankara station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on July 18?
Highest temperature in Ankara on July 18?
30°C 49%
31°C 29%
29°C 18%
28°C 5.4%
NEW
NEW
Jul 18, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29°C
18%
30°C
49%
31°C
29%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 49%
31°C 29%
29°C 18%
28°C 5.4%
NEW
NEW
Jul 18, 2026
25°C or below
$76 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$164 Vol.
1%
27°C
$221 Vol.
1%
28°C
$132 Vol.
5%
29°C
$353 Vol.
18%
30°C
$199 Vol.
49%
31°C
$148 Vol.
29%
32°C
$106 Vol.
3%
33°C
$99 Vol.
1%
34°C
$91 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$70 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS ensembles positions Ankara’s July 18 daily maximum near 30–31 °C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly flow across the Anatolian plateau.** These conditions favor strong daytime solar heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation, aligning with Ankara’s July climatological average high of approximately 31 °C. Recent forecasts from BBC Weather and timeanddate.com explicitly project a 31 °C high for the 18th, while broader monthly outlooks show a 28.5–33.3 °C envelope centered on 32 °C.
Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 29–31 °C because ensemble spreads remain narrow this close to the event, reflecting stable synoptic forcing rather than significant model disagreement or incoming frontal systems. Minor downward revisions in some runs (favoring 29–30 °C) versus slight upward potential under drier boundary-layer mixing explain the near-even split among the three leading outcomes, with traders discounting extremes below 28 °C or above 32 °C given the absence of heatwave or cooling signals in the latest guidance. Official observations will resolve the contract based on the 12:00 UTC maximum at the primary Ankara station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,658End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS ensembles positions Ankara’s July 18 daily maximum near 30–31 °C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly flow across the Anatolian plateau.** These conditions favor strong daytime solar heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation, aligning with Ankara’s July climatological average high of approximately 31 °C. Recent forecasts from BBC Weather and timeanddate.com explicitly project a 31 °C high for the 18th, while broader monthly outlooks show a 28.5–33.3 °C envelope centered on 32 °C.
Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 29–31 °C because ensemble spreads remain narrow this close to the event, reflecting stable synoptic forcing rather than significant model disagreement or incoming frontal systems. Minor downward revisions in some runs (favoring 29–30 °C) versus slight upward potential under drier boundary-layer mixing explain the near-even split among the three leading outcomes, with traders discounting extremes below 28 °C or above 32 °C given the absence of heatwave or cooling signals in the latest guidance. Official observations will resolve the contract based on the 12:00 UTC maximum at the primary Ankara station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,658End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS ensembles positions Ankara’s July 18 daily maximum near 30–31 °C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly flow across the Anatolian plateau.** These conditions favor strong daytime solar heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation, aligning with Ankara’s July climatological average high of approximately 31 °C. Recent forecasts from BBC Weather and timeanddate.com explicitly project a 31 °C high for the 18th, while broader monthly outlooks show a 28.5–33.3 °C envelope centered on 32 °C. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 29–31 °C because ensemble spreads remain narrow this close to the event, reflecting stable synoptic forcing rather than significant model disagreement or incoming frontal systems. Minor downward revisions in some runs (favoring 29–30 °C) versus slight upward potential under drier boundary-layer mixing explain the near-even split among the three leading outcomes, with traders discounting extremes below 28 °C or above 32 °C given the absence of heatwave or cooling signals in the latest guidance. Official observations will resolve the contract based on the 12:00 UTC maximum at the primary Ankara station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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