Recent short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Moscow’s July 18 maximum near 24–26 °C, aligning with the tightly bunched market-implied odds centered on those bins. This range sits close to the city’s July climatological average high of roughly 23–24 °C, reflecting a transitional summer pattern where modest high-pressure influence and clear skies promote daytime heating while light winds and boundary-layer moisture introduce small uncertainties in peak temperature. Minor differences among leading outcomes hinge on forecast details such as exact cloud timing, surface wind speed, and how models resolve afternoon mixing, with updates expected from the next model cycles before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on July 18?
Highest temperature in Moscow on July 18?
24°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$30,624 Vol.
$30,624 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$30,624 Vol.
$30,624 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
19°C or below
$760 Vol.
No
20°C
$644 Vol.
No
21°C
$542 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,370 Vol.
No
23°C
$3,361 Vol.
No
24°C
$5,549 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$8,102 Vol.
No
26°C
$4,688 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,232 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,701 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$675 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Moscow’s July 18 maximum near 24–26 °C, aligning with the tightly bunched market-implied odds centered on those bins. This range sits close to the city’s July climatological average high of roughly 23–24 °C, reflecting a transitional summer pattern where modest high-pressure influence and clear skies promote daytime heating while light winds and boundary-layer moisture introduce small uncertainties in peak temperature. Minor differences among leading outcomes hinge on forecast details such as exact cloud timing, surface wind speed, and how models resolve afternoon mixing, with updates expected from the next model cycles before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
Volume
$30,624End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Moscow’s July 18 maximum near 24–26 °C, aligning with the tightly bunched market-implied odds centered on those bins. This range sits close to the city’s July climatological average high of roughly 23–24 °C, reflecting a transitional summer pattern where modest high-pressure influence and clear skies promote daytime heating while light winds and boundary-layer moisture introduce small uncertainties in peak temperature. Minor differences among leading outcomes hinge on forecast details such as exact cloud timing, surface wind speed, and how models resolve afternoon mixing, with updates expected from the next model cycles before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,624End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Moscow’s July 18 maximum near 24–26 °C, aligning with the tightly bunched market-implied odds centered on those bins. This range sits close to the city’s July climatological average high of roughly 23–24 °C, reflecting a transitional summer pattern where modest high-pressure influence and clear skies promote daytime heating while light winds and boundary-layer moisture introduce small uncertainties in peak temperature. Minor differences among leading outcomes hinge on forecast details such as exact cloud timing, surface wind speed, and how models resolve afternoon mixing, with updates expected from the next model cycles before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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