Traders price the NYC highest temperature for July 20 in a narrow band around 80–83°F because the latest NOAA and AccuWeather ensemble guidance shows a moderating air mass arriving after early-July heat, with model runs clustering on a peak near 80–82°F. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any onshore sea breeze, which can shave 2–4°F off Central Park readings, afternoon cloud cover that limits surface heating, and minor differences in boundary-layer mixing among high-resolution models. Historical climatology for mid-July supports an 81–83°F normal range, but recent drier and slightly cooler conditions have kept probabilities balanced between the two leading bins while leaving little room for outliers above 85°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on July 20?
Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 33%
78-79°F 17%
84-85°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 20, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
40%
82-83°F
33%
84-85°F
9%
86-87°F
2%
88°F or higher
1%
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 33%
78-79°F 17%
84-85°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 20, 2026
69°F or below
$320 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$67 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$129 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$73 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$203 Vol.
4%
78-79°F
$259 Vol.
17%
80-81°F
$324 Vol.
40%
82-83°F
$164 Vol.
33%
84-85°F
$260 Vol.
9%
86-87°F
$196 Vol.
2%
88°F or higher
$331 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders price the NYC highest temperature for July 20 in a narrow band around 80–83°F because the latest NOAA and AccuWeather ensemble guidance shows a moderating air mass arriving after early-July heat, with model runs clustering on a peak near 80–82°F. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any onshore sea breeze, which can shave 2–4°F off Central Park readings, afternoon cloud cover that limits surface heating, and minor differences in boundary-layer mixing among high-resolution models. Historical climatology for mid-July supports an 81–83°F normal range, but recent drier and slightly cooler conditions have kept probabilities balanced between the two leading bins while leaving little room for outliers above 85°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 18, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$2,325End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders price the NYC highest temperature for July 20 in a narrow band around 80–83°F because the latest NOAA and AccuWeather ensemble guidance shows a moderating air mass arriving after early-July heat, with model runs clustering on a peak near 80–82°F. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any onshore sea breeze, which can shave 2–4°F off Central Park readings, afternoon cloud cover that limits surface heating, and minor differences in boundary-layer mixing among high-resolution models. Historical climatology for mid-July supports an 81–83°F normal range, but recent drier and slightly cooler conditions have kept probabilities balanced between the two leading bins while leaving little room for outliers above 85°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,325End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders price the NYC highest temperature for July 20 in a narrow band around 80–83°F because the latest NOAA and AccuWeather ensemble guidance shows a moderating air mass arriving after early-July heat, with model runs clustering on a peak near 80–82°F. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any onshore sea breeze, which can shave 2–4°F off Central Park readings, afternoon cloud cover that limits surface heating, and minor differences in boundary-layer mixing among high-resolution models. Historical climatology for mid-July supports an 81–83°F normal range, but recent drier and slightly cooler conditions have kept probabilities balanced between the two leading bins while leaving little room for outliers above 85°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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