Recent ensemble model runs from NOAA and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show modest spread in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing over the New York City metropolitan area, keeping the most likely minimum temperature clustered between 68–73 °F. Light southerly flow, dew points in the mid-60s, and variable cloud cover expected after midnight limit the potential for either strong cooling or retained heat, producing the tight probability distribution across the 68–69 °F, 70–71 °F, and 72–73 °F bins. Urban heat-island effects and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage remain the key variables that could shift the official Central Park observation by a degree or two before the National Weather Service finalizes its reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on July 19?
Lowest temperature in NYC on July 19?
74-75°F 100.0%
63°F or below <1%
64-65°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
$26,690 Vol.
$26,690 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
63°F or below
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
Yes
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82°F or higher
No
74-75°F 100.0%
63°F or below <1%
64-65°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
$26,690 Vol.
$26,690 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
63°F or below
$573 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$948 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$678 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$600 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$1,356 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$4,103 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$9,718 Vol.
Yes
76-77°F
$4,459 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$1,926 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$1,135 Vol.
No
82°F or higher
$1,194 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble model runs from NOAA and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show modest spread in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing over the New York City metropolitan area, keeping the most likely minimum temperature clustered between 68–73 °F. Light southerly flow, dew points in the mid-60s, and variable cloud cover expected after midnight limit the potential for either strong cooling or retained heat, producing the tight probability distribution across the 68–69 °F, 70–71 °F, and 72–73 °F bins. Urban heat-island effects and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage remain the key variables that could shift the official Central Park observation by a degree or two before the National Weather Service finalizes its reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$26,690End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble model runs from NOAA and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show modest spread in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing over the New York City metropolitan area, keeping the most likely minimum temperature clustered between 68–73 °F. Light southerly flow, dew points in the mid-60s, and variable cloud cover expected after midnight limit the potential for either strong cooling or retained heat, producing the tight probability distribution across the 68–69 °F, 70–71 °F, and 72–73 °F bins. Urban heat-island effects and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage remain the key variables that could shift the official Central Park observation by a degree or two before the National Weather Service finalizes its reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26,690End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent ensemble model runs from NOAA and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show modest spread in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing over the New York City metropolitan area, keeping the most likely minimum temperature clustered between 68–73 °F. Light southerly flow, dew points in the mid-60s, and variable cloud cover expected after midnight limit the potential for either strong cooling or retained heat, producing the tight probability distribution across the 68–69 °F, 70–71 °F, and 72–73 °F bins. Urban heat-island effects and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage remain the key variables that could shift the official Central Park observation by a degree or two before the National Weather Service finalizes its reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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