Current forecast models from agencies like Météo-France and ECMWF indicate a possible influx of cooler maritime air over northern France in the next 48 hours, driven by a weakening high-pressure system and an approaching trough, which could suppress daytime highs and lower nighttime minimums in Paris. Ensemble spreads remain wide for July 21, with guidance showing overnight lows potentially dipping to 10–14 °C under clear, radiational cooling conditions versus 15–17 °C if cloud cover or a warmer southerly flow persists. These small differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, and exact frontal timing create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the lower-to-mid teens, reflecting traders’ assessment of model consensus versus historical July variability for the Île-de-France region. Updated model runs expected in the coming hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for the lowest temperature reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on July 21?
Lowest temperature in Paris on July 21?
13°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$14,009 Vol.
$14,009 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$14,009 Vol.
$14,009 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
10°C or below
$2,386 Vol.
No
11°C
$982 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,289 Vol.
No
13°C
$3,121 Vol.
Yes
14°C
$1,731 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,945 Vol.
No
16°C
$857 Vol.
No
17°C
$379 Vol.
No
18°C
$526 Vol.
No
19°C
$462 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$332 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies like Météo-France and ECMWF indicate a possible influx of cooler maritime air over northern France in the next 48 hours, driven by a weakening high-pressure system and an approaching trough, which could suppress daytime highs and lower nighttime minimums in Paris. Ensemble spreads remain wide for July 21, with guidance showing overnight lows potentially dipping to 10–14 °C under clear, radiational cooling conditions versus 15–17 °C if cloud cover or a warmer southerly flow persists. These small differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, and exact frontal timing create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the lower-to-mid teens, reflecting traders’ assessment of model consensus versus historical July variability for the Île-de-France region. Updated model runs expected in the coming hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for the lowest temperature reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$14,009End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies like Météo-France and ECMWF indicate a possible influx of cooler maritime air over northern France in the next 48 hours, driven by a weakening high-pressure system and an approaching trough, which could suppress daytime highs and lower nighttime minimums in Paris. Ensemble spreads remain wide for July 21, with guidance showing overnight lows potentially dipping to 10–14 °C under clear, radiational cooling conditions versus 15–17 °C if cloud cover or a warmer southerly flow persists. These small differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, and exact frontal timing create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the lower-to-mid teens, reflecting traders’ assessment of model consensus versus historical July variability for the Île-de-France region. Updated model runs expected in the coming hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for the lowest temperature reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,009End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecast models from agencies like Météo-France and ECMWF indicate a possible influx of cooler maritime air over northern France in the next 48 hours, driven by a weakening high-pressure system and an approaching trough, which could suppress daytime highs and lower nighttime minimums in Paris. Ensemble spreads remain wide for July 21, with guidance showing overnight lows potentially dipping to 10–14 °C under clear, radiational cooling conditions versus 15–17 °C if cloud cover or a warmer southerly flow persists. These small differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, and exact frontal timing create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the lower-to-mid teens, reflecting traders’ assessment of model consensus versus historical July variability for the Île-de-France region. Updated model runs expected in the coming hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for the lowest temperature reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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