Short-term numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international sources currently indicate a daytime maximum near 14°C for Wellington on July 19 under light easterly to southeasterly flow and partly cloudy conditions. This aligns with the market’s strong consensus on 14°C (53%) and 13°C (31%), reflecting typical mid-winter variability where small shifts in frontal timing, wind strength, or insolation can alter the peak by 1°C. July climatology shows average highs of 12–13°C, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures through the period. Recent days, including a confirmed 15°C high on July 14, demonstrate how transient northerly influences can briefly elevate readings above the mean, keeping traders attentive to the next model runs and official MetService updates ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on July 19?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 19?
13°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$81,483 Vol.
$81,483 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$81,483 Vol.
$81,483 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
8°C or below
$512 Vol.
No
9°C
$412 Vol.
No
10°C
$1,533 Vol.
No
11°C
$2,490 Vol.
No
12°C
$17,457 Vol.
No
13°C
$18,113 Vol.
Yes
14°C
$16,688 Vol.
No
15°C
$14,496 Vol.
No
16°C
$8,112 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,216 Vol.
No
18°C or higher
$452 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international sources currently indicate a daytime maximum near 14°C for Wellington on July 19 under light easterly to southeasterly flow and partly cloudy conditions. This aligns with the market’s strong consensus on 14°C (53%) and 13°C (31%), reflecting typical mid-winter variability where small shifts in frontal timing, wind strength, or insolation can alter the peak by 1°C. July climatology shows average highs of 12–13°C, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures through the period. Recent days, including a confirmed 15°C high on July 14, demonstrate how transient northerly influences can briefly elevate readings above the mean, keeping traders attentive to the next model runs and official MetService updates ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$81,483End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international sources currently indicate a daytime maximum near 14°C for Wellington on July 19 under light easterly to southeasterly flow and partly cloudy conditions. This aligns with the market’s strong consensus on 14°C (53%) and 13°C (31%), reflecting typical mid-winter variability where small shifts in frontal timing, wind strength, or insolation can alter the peak by 1°C. July climatology shows average highs of 12–13°C, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures through the period. Recent days, including a confirmed 15°C high on July 14, demonstrate how transient northerly influences can briefly elevate readings above the mean, keeping traders attentive to the next model runs and official MetService updates ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$81,483End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Short-term numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international sources currently indicate a daytime maximum near 14°C for Wellington on July 19 under light easterly to southeasterly flow and partly cloudy conditions. This aligns with the market’s strong consensus on 14°C (53%) and 13°C (31%), reflecting typical mid-winter variability where small shifts in frontal timing, wind strength, or insolation can alter the peak by 1°C. July climatology shows average highs of 12–13°C, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures through the period. Recent days, including a confirmed 15°C high on July 14, demonstrate how transient northerly influences can briefly elevate readings above the mean, keeping traders attentive to the next model runs and official MetService updates ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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